Northern Star shares are closing in on $25. Can the rally keep going?

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are having another good day on Friday.

At the time of writing, the gold miner’s shares are up 1.13% to $24.61.

It continues a strong run over the past month, with Northern Star shares now up around 21% since the end of July.

That bounce has helped the stock claw back some of its earlier losses. The shares are now up around 30% over the past 12 months, although they are still down roughly 8% in 2026 and remain well below their 52-week high of $31.96.

So, what’s been giving Northern Star shares a lift lately?

Gold prices are helping

One thing working in Northern Star’s favour right now is the gold price.

Gold is trading around US$4,583 an ounce and has climbed almost 13% over the past month, which is giving gold miners a nice tailwind.

Northern Star’s FY26 result also showed just how much that stronger gold price can help.

Revenue rose 19% to $7.62 billion, even though gold sold fell 6% to 1.54 million ounces. Helping offset the lower sales volume was the average realised gold price, which jumped 26% to $4,925 an ounce.

Underlying EBITDA increased 22% to $4.27 billion, while statutory net profit rose 24% to $1.66 billion.

Shareholders also got a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share.

Investors clearly liked what they saw, with the stock jumping 6.2% on 20 August when the result was released.

What happens next at KCGM?

A lot now comes down to how the KCGM expansion plays out.

Northern Star is now commissioning the larger processing plant, with the project expected to play a bigger role in production and cash flow over the coming years.

Management is guiding to FY27 gold production of 1.5 million to 1.65 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $3,050 to $3,450 an ounce.

Spending is still going to be high, though. Capital expenditure is expected to come in between $2.55 billion and $2.94 billion as work continues across KCGM and the Hemi project.

Keep in mind that this investment weighed on FY26 underlying free cash flow, which fell 64% to $190 million.

Managing director Stuart Tonkin called the company an “important inflection point”, with the KCGM expansion expected to help lift free cash flow as the ramp-up continues.

What are brokers saying?

Despite the recent rally, brokers aren’t all convinced there is much upside left.

According to TipRanks, the average 12-month price target is $23.08, which sits below where Northern Star shares are trading today.

Of the 11 analyst ratings, 2 are ‘buys’, 8 are ‘holds’ and 1 is a ‘sell’.

Jefferies is more positive, though. The broker kept its ‘buy’ rating after the FY26 result and lifted its price target to $27.

With the shares now at $24.61, Jefferies still sees the stock heading a little higher from here.

The post Northern Star shares are closing in on $25. Can the rally keep going? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.