5 things reporting season taught ASX investors about FY27

Reporting season ended on Monday, and the FY26 numbers are no longer the accountants’ problem.

Hundreds of ASX companies reported through August.

Guidance was revised, brokers rebuilt their models, and volatility impacted many ASX stocks.

Once the noise settles, a handful of lessons are worth carrying into FY27.

Here are the five that struck me most.

1. The outlook mattered more than the result

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) posted the ugliest headline of the month and one of the best share price reactions.

FY26 revenue slipped 1% to US$15.8 billion and impairments of US$7.1 billion drove a statutory loss of US$2.6 billion, yet the shares rose 17.9% on the day anyway.

Investors ignored the write-downs entirely and focused on FY27 guidance of roughly 5% underlying profit growth, against a 2% consensus.

The lesson is simple enough: the market is pricing next year, not last year.

2. Costs are now the swing factor for miners

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) reported a record FY26 profit and still disappointed.

Underlying net profit after tax reached $1.8 billion on revenue of $7.6 billion.

The problem sat in FY27 guidance, which put all-in sustaining costs at $3,050 to $3,450 an ounce against $2,698 in FY26.

For a decade, the commodity price was the only variable that mattered for Australian miners.

That is no longer true, and cost guidance now moves share prices as much as spot prices do.

3. Cash flow separated reporting season’s winners from the headlines

Northern Star makes this point too.

A $1.8 billion underlying profit produced only $190 million of underlying free cash flow, because capital spending at the KCGM mine peaked during the year.

Plenty of companies reported record profits this reporting season while funding enormous capital programs.

For investors, the cash flow statement has become more and more important.

That is a healthy development, and I expect it to continue through FY27.

4. The income came from resources, not the banks

FY26 flipped the usual assumption about where dividends live.

Utilities shares paid an average yield of 5.98% across the year, with energy at 5.14% and materials at 4.63%, against an S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) average of 4.23%.

Final dividends declared in August have followed the same pattern, and the largest payments this month are coming from energy and mining companies rather than financials.

Anyone building an income portfolio around the big four banks may want to reconsider their strategy in the short to medium term.

5. Growth was repriced, not abandoned

The harshest treatment this reporting season went to companies that grew but missed expectations.

WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) is down 58% over twelve months, and Objective Corporation Ltd (ASX: OCL) has fallen 69% to five-year lows.

Yet brokers still see upside of 52% and 33% respectively.

The market has not stopped believing in growth, but it has stopped paying extreme multiples for that growth, and that discipline is likely to persist.

What reporting season means heading into FY27

Two macro threads run underneath all five points.

The economy is slowing, which showed up in softer credit growth and weaker consumer spending across the results.

Inflation also remains stubborn, and Morgan Stanley now expects the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate when it meets on 29 September.

Neither is fatal, but both argue for owning businesses with strong pricing power and real cash generation.

Foolish takeaway

Reporting season is useful because it forces companies to be specific about what is driving their business.

Guidance, costs and cash flow are all much harder to spin than a headline profit number.

CSL showed that a terrible statutory result can still be a good investment case.

On the other hand, Northern Star showed that a record profit can still be a warning.

All in all, the investors who did best out of this reporting season were the ones reading the outlook statement rather than the press release.

The post 5 things reporting season taught ASX investors about FY27 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• CSL shares are up more than 40% in a month. What just happened in the US?
• WiseTech shares enjoy best month in over a year. More to come?
• Where will CSL shares be in 12 months? Brokers weigh in

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL, Objective, and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Objective and WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.