Why I’d wait to buy BHP shares in superannuation

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares represent one business that most Australians will have exposure to in their superannuation fund.

Whether that’s the superannuation fund investing in it through an ‘Australian shares’ option, Australians picking an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that owns BHP shares, or directly buying BHP shares – it has a large presence on the ASX share market.

There’s now a sizeable gap in the market capitalisation between BHP and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) following a 53% rise of the BHP share price in the last year.

But, if I were considering investing in BHP shares directly in superannuation, I think it could be a wise idea to wait before investing.

ASX mining shares are volatile

I’m not afraid of ASX share market volatility. However, it’s important to recognise that miners are often cyclical.

That’s the nature of resource prices – they go up and down depending on supply and demand. Commodity prices don’t stay consistent every month or even year to year.

A business like BHP has fairly consistent operating costs, so a rise in revenue can significantly boost profitability thanks to operating leverage.

We saw that in the 2026 financial year, with revenue rising 15% to US$58.8 billion, profit from operations improving 23% to US$23.9 billion, and underlying attributable profit climbing 30% to US$13.2 billion.

When commodity prices strengthen, it can lead to great results. Copper was the big driver for BHP – the copper price improved 35% to US$5.74 per pound, helping copper underlying operating profit (EBITDA) improve 48% to US$18.2 billion.

But, I think it would be unwise to expect that the copper price will increase by another 35% in FY27, so I’m not expecting BHP to deliver another strong year of growth.

Miners are not usually the type of business to consistently grow earnings at a similar pace year after year. I think earnings are likely to bounce around.

Why I’d wait to buy BHP shares in superannuation

BHP is a very impressive operator, one of the best in the world at what it does.

However, I think the last decade has shown how the company’s earnings can be cyclical, particularly the iron ore earnings. So, there may be a time when the market is not as optimistic about the outlook for commodities as it is right now.

I’d rather buy when the BHP share price is relatively low, which happens when commodity prices are weaker.

I do believe there will be another opportunity to buy BHP shares at a better valuation, though I don’t know exactly when that will be. But, we don’t have to buy at this higher valuation. We should look at other opportunities in the meantime if we’re trying to generate good returns.

The post Why I’d wait to buy BHP shares in superannuation appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.