Ord Minnett thinks this ASX consumer discretionary stock can rise 45% by this time next year

The ASX consumer discretionary sector has been hit hard by several headwinds in 2026. 

The sector relies heavily on an economic environment that supports strong household spending, because these companies sell non-essential goods and services. 

Headwinds aplenty 

Success largely depends on household disposable income, employment and wage growth, consumer confidence, interest rates, and the cost of living. 

When incomes rise and borrowing costs are manageable, consumers generally have more capacity to spend, while higher interest rates and weaker real incomes can reduce discretionary purchases.

These factors have weighed heavily against the sector in 2026, pushing many share prices down. 

Because of this, the S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index (ASX: XDJ) has fallen over 12% year to date, and over 22% in the last 12 months. 

However, this pressure has created value opportunities that should these headwinds ease in the near future. 

One such stock that has been identified by Ord Minnett is Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (ASX: BLX). 

Its share price is down over 35% year to date.

Company overview

Beacon Lighting engages in the retail of lighting products in Australia and internationally. The company designs, develops, sources, imports, distributes, merchandises, markets, and sells light fittings, ceiling fans, light globes, and electrical accessories products.

According to Ord Minnett, this ASX consumer discretionary stock delivered a solid FY26 result against a volatile macro backdrop, achieving 4Q26 same-store sales growth of 7.1%, with momentum continuing into FY27. 

We believe accelerating sales momentum, a strong pipeline of new stores, a favourable FX swing for margins, and improving returns from its property fund underpins an improved outlook.

Strong growth expected in FY27

According to the broker, Beacon Lighting is expected to return to growth in FY27, supported by several key drivers: 

• Improving underlying sales momentum
• An acceleration in the store rollout program
• Favourable currency movements that are expected to support gross profit margins
• Stronger earnings contributions from the Large Format Property Fund

In combination, these factors are expected to drive an improvement in earnings growth and support a stronger overall financial performance.

Based on this guidance, Ord Minnett has retained its buy recommendation on this ASX consumer discretionary stock. 

It also has a price target of $2.65, indicating 45% upside from current levels. 

BLX continues to execute its long-term strategy of evolving from a traditional lighting retailer into Australia’s leading provider of quality lighting and electrical products for both homeowners and trade professionals. Central to this strategy is increasing trade sales to approximately 50% of revenue, which should enhance revenue diversification, reduce reliance on discretionary consumer spending, and support more resilient earnings growth across the cycle. Overall, BLX remains well-placed to capture upside from any improvement in trading conditions.

The post Ord Minnett thinks this ASX consumer discretionary stock can rise 45% by this time next year appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• An ASX small-cap share to buy for its bright future
• Beacon Lighting Group share price jumps 14%: FY26 profit drops despite higher sales

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.