Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2030 for Fortescue shares

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares have been one of the best investments over the past several years. However, with the iron ore price not exactly booming, it’s important to know where the dividend is projected to go in the next few years.

The miner’s key commodity is iron ore; it’s less diversified than BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) because those two are also involved in copper and other commodities.

Fortescue’s FY25 dividend suffered a significant decline, so let’s take a look at what experts think of the dividend outlook.

FY26

The company recently reported its FY26 first-quarter update, and broker UBS analysed the numbers. It said that the three months to September 2025 were “solid” with a “strong” sold price for its commodities.

UBS said Fortescue’s hematite (iron ore) shipments of 47.6 million tonnes (mt) were in line with expectations, as were production costs. However, the higher-grade Iron Bridge shipments were 11% lower than expected as the ramp-up of that project continues, though the realised price was 9% stronger than expected.

The business is expecting FY26 shipments to be between 195mt to 205mt, while C1 costs are expected to between US$17.50 to US$18.50 per tonne.

UBS said that while iron ore fundamentals have been “tighter than expected” on a range of factors, it’s still expecting conditions to weaken as Simandou ramps up over the next three years.

The broker believes iron ore low-grade discounts (to the regular grade) are expected to stay narrow, which is promising for the price Fortescue can sell for its production.

Either way, UBS suggests that China’s economic outlook will be “pivotal” and US trade policy could be “key” for the foreseeable future.

After taking that into account, UBS predicts Fortescue could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.29 in FY26. At the time of writing, this translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 9.1%, including franking credits.

FY27

UBS is currently forecasting that the Fortescue earnings and dividend per share could fall back in the 2027 financial year, which could be its worst output for many years, if the projections come true.

The broker has predicted that owners of Fortescue shares could receive an annual dividend per share of 72 cents.

FY28

It could get slightly better for the business in FY28, though still substantially below what it’s projected to pay in the 2026 financial year.

UBS projects that Fortescue could pay shareholders an annual dividend per share of 78 cents.

FY29

Fortescue could see another improvement in the 2029 financial year based on UBS’ projections for the ASX mining share.

The iron ore miner is projected to pay an annual dividend per share of 85 cents in FY29.

FY30

The 2030 financial year is a long way away, a lot could happen with iron ore prices between now and then.

If UBS’ projections come true, then the miner could pay owners of Fortescue shares an annual dividend per share of 89 cents.

The post Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2030 for Fortescue shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.