Why Morgan Stanley’s S&P 500 target forecasts a 19% gain for this top ASX ETF

The S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) took a tumble overnight.

Amid diminishing hopes for another US Fed interest rate cut in 2025, and mounting concerns over a potential AI bubble, the S&P 500 closed down 1.6% on Thursday, ending the day at 6,539 points.

This sees the benchmark US stock market index down 5.1% since notching its record closing high of 6,891 points on 28 October.

Taking a step back, however, the US index has still materially outperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO).

Year to date, the ASX 200 is up 2.9% while the S&P 500 has gained 11.2% over this same period.

As for the year ahead, the team at Morgan Stanley forecasts a big uplift for the US markets.

We’ll look at one ASX ETF (exchange-traded fund) that stands to benefit from that bullish forecast below.

But first…

Why Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to surge in 2026

“We believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market,” Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson said on Wednesday. “Remember the S&P 500 was down 20% and the average S&P stock was down more than 30% into April.”

According to Wilson:

This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy.

Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy.

And Morgan Stanley expects the US index, and by extension, the ASX ETF we’ll examine below, to come roaring back.

“For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7,800, which assumes 17% earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today’s levels,” Wilson said.

That target represents a 19.3% upside from current levels.

As for which stocks could lead the charge, Wilson added:

Our favourite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021.

How to mirror those outsized potential gains with one ASX ETF

If you’re looking to mimic the potential 19% plus gains Morgan Stanley expects from the S&P 500, you might want to have a look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ASX: SPY).

The ASX ETF provides you with exposure to 500 of the largest US-listed companies, with the goal of tracking the performance of the benchmark US index.

The ASX ETF’s largest four holdings are Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN).

The post Why Morgan Stanley’s S&P 500 target forecasts a 19% gain for this top ASX ETF appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.