How low could CBA shares go in 2026?

It has been a tough period for Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares.

Since hitting a record high of $192.00 in June, the banking giant’s shares have lost 20% of their value.

Unfortunately for shareholders, analysts believe that this could just be the start of even greater declines.

But just how low could CBA shares go in 2026? Let’s take a look at what brokers are predicting for Australia’s largest bank.

Where are CBA shares heading?

Firstly, it is worth highlighting that brokers have been calling CBA shares overvalued and predicting sharp declines for years.

Despite this, the bank’s shares have managed to outperform the market and even some popular ASX growth shares with strong returns.

But it is also worth remembering that trading conditions in the banking sector aren’t as easy as they were several years ago and growth is getting hard to come by. This makes it hard to justify the premium valuations that the banks are trading on.

It is partly for this reason that analysts at UBS have put a sell rating and $125.00 price target on CBA’s shares. This implies potential downside of approximately 18% from current levels.

While that decline would be disappointing, it certainly is not the worst-case scenario.

For example, the team at Macquarie has put an underperform rating and $106.00 price target on its shares. This suggests that there is potential downside of approximately 31% over the next 12 months. It commented:

While CBA remains the leading banking franchise, with cracks appearing in its deposit ‘moat’, and further downside risk to consensus, we believe valuation of ~26x FY26E P/E and ~3.5x P/B remains detached from fundamentals. Maintain Underperform.

But that’s not even the furthest that analysts think CBA shares could fall in 2026. The most bearish broker at present is Morgans, which has a sell rating and $96.07 price target on them. Based on its current share price, this implies potential downside of over 37% for investors between now and this time next year. Morgans recently said:

We remain SELL rated on CBA, recommending clients aggressively reduce overweight positions given the risk of poor future investment returns arising from the even-now overvalued share price and low-to-mid single digit EPS/DPS growth outlook.

Overall, the broker community appears convinced that next year could be a bad one for the big four bank’s shares and that investors should be taking profit before it is too late.

The post How low could CBA shares go in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• These were the 10 most-traded Australian shares last week
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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.