Ukrainian robotics company says autonomy in defense is overhyped — but it’s also past the point of no return

• A Ukrainian company working on autonomous systems said autonomy in defense is "greatly overhyped."
• Much of what is called autonomous isn't really, he said.
• Autonomy can describe a host of abilities, including some where humans still play a big role.

The CEO of Ukrainian arms maker Ark Robotics told Business Insider that "autonomy in defense is greatly overhyped."

Much of what is labeled autonomous isn't, he said. "If we're talking about real frontline usage, we are talking less than 1% where autonomy is present."

"There's a gap between the hype around autonomy and what actually works on the frontline today," said Achi, who spoke to Business Insider using a pseudonym as a security precaution.

Defense forces, he said, "want a hundred percent reliability, and the AI is just not there." Artificial intelligence alone won't get the job done right now. Human oversight is still heavily required, but a shift is expected.

While autonomy may be deeply overhyped today, it may be completely unavoidable tomorrow.

Ark is working on more autonomous tech, and expects rapid improvements in the area. "I think we already are past the point of no return," the CEO said, adding that the current battlefield shows "autonomy is necessary."

Ark Robotics makes a suite of autonomous robots used by more than 20 Ukrainian brigades, and is developing a system that allows thousands of aerial drones and ground robots, including ones made by different companies, to work together with minimal human involvement. The system, Frontier, isn't fully autonomous, nor does it claim to be. "That's not where the industry is yet," Achi said.

He said autonomy is present in Frontier but described it as an early step toward network-level autonomy at scale.

"Time is essential," Achi explained. "Democratic countries aren't the only ones racing to build such products. We're doing our best, supported by our team's strong autonomy expertise and continuous feedback from the front line."

The autonomy question

Autonomous systems have become increasingly common in Ukraine as domestic companies and Western allies bolster its fight against Russia's invasion, now close to entering its fourth year. These systems help offset Russia's larger force size, reduce demands on operators, and keep drone pilots farther from danger.

Autonomous systems make decisions faster than humans and handle certain routine battlefield tasks, freeing troops to focus on higher-level work.

Much of what is described as autonomous still requires heavy human involvement. Part of the issue is definitional — autonomy can describe everything from basic navigation to a system that identifies, classifies, and acts on a target without direction.

More advanced systems might launch a weapon autonomously or coordinate a drone swarm. Others can learn and make decisions themselves, but many still keep humans in the loop for both ethical and policy reasons.

Warfare experts say the term "autonomous" is often used inconsistently.

A report from the UK's Royal United Services Institute last year noted that there is no agreed-upon definition for how autonomous an "autonomous" system actually is.

Kateryna Bondar, an AI and defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote earlier this year that "fully autonomous warfare remains an aspiration," but "significant progress" has been made in partial autonomy, especially with drone tech. In Ukraine, she said, "autonomous" is often used interchangeably with "unmanned," even if only limited autonomy is involved.

Chasing autonomy

Achi said his company is pursuing autonomy on two levels. The first is edge autonomy, where systems make decisions on their own without instructions from an operator or control center. He gave the example of an aerial drone scouting an area, waiting for a target, able to act on its own.

The second level, which Ark is more interested in, is the orchestration layer, where multiple drones or robots coordinate and give tasks. Achi said this level is where you can give the system "an abstract task," like protecting a perimeter, and it can then "orchestrate whatever is needed to do that," such as directing systems such as strike drones. Humans can step in if needed.

He said the second is "the hardest to solve" as it needs a good edge foundation to build on.

Frontier, Ark's AI-powered system, is designed to coordinate thousands of uncrewed systems, sharply reducing operator demands and keeping humans much farther from combat. In a demonstration in Denmark, a user remotely operated a ground robot 1,200 miles away in Kyiv.

Ark, founded in Ukraine and now headquartered in NATO member Estonia, aims to keep humans involved as little as needed so decisions can be made much faster.

An autonomous future

Western militaries and companies, as well as rivals Russia and China, are pushing for more autonomous systems. NATO is prioritizing autonomous technology, particularly in drone technology, for threat detection.

Among many lines of effort are programs like the US Department of Defense's push for all-domain attritable autonomous systems through the Replicator initiative and the UK's substantial investment this year of more than $5 billion in uncrewed autonomous systems.

How far autonomy can go technologically remains to be seen, and its use may be limited by ethical debates. As is, Western militaries often restrict higher levels of autonomy in lethal systems.

But Achi said there won't be any turning back, and expects all militaries to be using it in some form. He said autonomy has become "kind of prerequisite to be successful in the total drone warfare that is coming to all of us."

"You can have all these fancy drones," he said, "but what is the use of them if you can't really deploy them at scale?"