Can surging ASX 200 gold shares like Evolution Mining keeping smashing the benchmark in 2026?

In the last, and shortened, trading week of 2025, S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares including Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) are off to the races.

In late morning trade today, the ASX 200 is down 0.1%.

That’s despite the lifting efforts of most Aussie gold miners, with the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) up 0.3% at this same time.

Here’s how some of the leading ASX 200 gold shares are tracking at time of writing:

• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are up 0.9% at $27.26
• Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) shares are up 0.5% at $157.05
• Ramelius Resources Ltd(ASX: RMS) shares are flat at $4.20
• Evolution Mining shares are up 1.8% at $13.18
• Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares are down 0.2% at $1.71
• Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are up 0.5% at $5.76
• Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) shares are up 1.6% at $5.53
• Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) shares are up 0.9% at $6.56

Although the gold miners have given back some of their loftier early morning gains, they’re still clearly grabbing ASX investor interest today.

Here’s why.

What’s boosting ASX 200 gold shares today?

When the gold price rises, so too do the profits for most Aussie gold miners.

That’s because the costs of digging up an ounce of the yellow metal remain relatively fixed, regardless of the price the ASX 200 gold shares receive for it at the end of the day.

And, as you likely know, the gold price has been going ballistic.

Over the weekend the gold price set a new all-time high, topping US$4,533 per ounce. It’s since slipped a touch to be trading for US$4,516 per ounce at time of writing. This sees the gold price up more than 73% over the past 12 months in a historic rally for the precious metal.

And it’s come as welcome Christmas news to investors in ASX 200 gold shares, who have watched the share prices of their investments soar over the year. Pleasingly for passive income investors, a number of the top gold miners have also materially upped their dividend payments.

Gold has been catching tailwinds on numerous fronts. These includes strong central bank bullion buying, the prospect of further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, and ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties.

Is it too late to ASX gold stocks like Evolution Mining?

Evolution Mining shares have surged 172.5% over the past year. And the ASX 200 gold share trades on a fully franked 1.5% trailing dividend yield.

The ASX All Ords gold index has gained 124.2% over this same time.

The outlook for further outsized share price gains for Evolution Mining and it rival ASX gold miners will depend largely on how gold moves in 2026.

While the future remains unknown by definition, a number of analysts are bullish on the trajectory of the gold price in 2026.

According to Global X investment strategist Justin Lin (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):

Momentum is sweeping through the precious metals space as retail investors have adopted a ‘better-late-than-left-behind’ mindset, even at the year’s end.

While some of the gold buying reflects genuine hedging demand, a sizable share too likely stems from fear of missing out as gold and silver have outshone every other asset class this year.

Global X forecasts the gold price to hit US$5,000 per ounces in 2026, with the potential to reach US$6,000 per ounce if global stock markets perform poorly or geopolitical tensions rise further.

Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, also forecasts the gold price to reach US$5,000 per once in 2026. He noted:

As we head into 2026, gold is no longer just a hedge against inflation or falling rates – it is increasingly a cornerstone asset in a world defined by fragmentation, fiscal strain, and geopolitical uncertainty.

If 2026 does deliver ongoing gains in the gold price, we should see more outperformance from these top ASX 200 gold shares.

The post Can surging ASX 200 gold shares like Evolution Mining keeping smashing the benchmark in 2026? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• Gold just smashed a record high. Are Northern Star shares next?
• Up 160% in a year, could Evolution Mining shares keep climbing?
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday
• At record prices, why don’t ASX gold miners pay high dividends?

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.