Can the sizzling rally in ASX 200 copper stocks boost BHP shares in 2026? 

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stocks have raced ahead of the benchmark in 2025.

And they look well placed to outperform again in 2026.

In early afternoon trade today, the ASX 200 is down 0.1%.

Meanwhile, shares in Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR), perhaps Australia’s most pure play ASX 200 copper stock, are up 0.6% at $17.97. And shares in dual-listed, Canadian-based Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC), which joined the ASX on 8 April, are up 1.8% at $15.50 each.

As for Australia’s largest miner, the BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price is up 0.2% today at $45.69. Iron ore remains BHP’s top revenue earner but, as we’ll look at below, the mining giant’s copper earnings are rapidly growing and now come in at number two.

As for that blistering rally in ASX copper stocks, Sandfire shares are up 92.9% in 2025; Capstone Copper shares have gained 52.6%; and the BHP share price is up 14.4% (not including dividends).

For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 6.7% year to date.

ASX copper stocks enjoying surging copper price

Atop its broader use in construction, like plumbing, copper is considered a critical metal in the world’s energy transition.

Amid various recent mining disruptions, the copper price – as well as ASX 200 copper stocks – has also gotten a big added boost from the tariffs proposed by United States President Donald Trump. This has caused a material lift in the amount of copper being shipped to the US ahead of the potential implementation of those tariffs.

Indeed, the Aussie 200 copper stocks, including BHP, Capstone, and Sandfire, are enjoying all-time high prices for the red metal. Copper is now trading for US$12,163 per tonne, up 37% in 12 months.

And, as reported by The Australian Financial Review, both Morgan Stanley and Citigroup expect strong demand and limited new supplies to support copper prices in 2026.

With an eye on further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, Citigroup said the copper price could reach US$15,000 per tonne, or more than 15% above current levels, in its bull case scenario.

Little wonder then, that BHP is actively working to increase its copper exposure.

BHP shares boosting copper footprint

Though far from a pure play ASX 200 copper stock, BHP is rapidly increasing its copper production.

In its FY 2025 full year results release, BHP noted:

In FY25, BHP’s total copper production increased for a third consecutive year to a record 2,017 kt, 28% higher than in FY22, driven by strong performances across all operated copper assets.

This drove a 44% increase in our total copper Underlying EBITDA to US$12.3 bn and increased copper’s contribution to the Group’s Underlying EBITDA to 45% (FY24: 29%).

Group copper production for FY26 is expected to remain strong at between 1,800 kt and 2,000 kt on a consolidated basis.

Looking to what could impact BHP shares longer-term, the miner said:

As we look ahead to the 2030s, we have a number of projects in execution and under study that we estimate could deliver ~2 Mtpa of attributable copper production during the decade.

The post Can the sizzling rally in ASX 200 copper stocks boost BHP shares in 2026?  appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 top ASX dividend shares to buy now
• 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday
• BHP, Macquarie, and Westpac: Naughty or nice? 3 popular ASX shares examined
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Record copper price shines a light on BHP shares and these two other ASX 200 mining stocks

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.