Why I’m bullish on the BHP share price as copper prices surge

When most investors think about BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), iron ore usually gets the spotlight. It is still a critical part of the story, but it is no longer the part that excites me the most.

That honour belongs to copper.

With copper prices hitting a record high this month, I think the market is being reminded of something BHP has been quietly building for years.

That is a portfolio that’s increasingly leveraged to one of the most important metals of the modern economy.

Copper demand

Copper sits at the centre of several powerful structural trends.

Electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres, and artificial intelligence all require vast amounts of copper. In fact, many of these technologies are significantly more copper-intensive than the systems they are replacing.

What makes this particularly compelling is that supply growth has struggled to keep pace. New copper projects are expensive, complex, and slow to bring online. Furthermore, grades are declining, permitting is harder, and geopolitical risks are rising.

The combination of rising demand and constrained supply is exactly what long-term investors should be paying attention to.

BHP shares are one of the best ways to play copper

BHP isn’t just exposed to copper; it is becoming increasingly defined by it.

The company already owns some of the world’s most important copper assets. This includes Escondida in Chile and a growing copper province in South Australia. Operationally, copper production has been trending higher, supported by improved throughput and ongoing investment in productivity and expansion projects.

More importantly, BHP isn’t standing still. Management has been clear about its ambition to grow copper output further over time, with a pipeline of options across existing operations and future developments. That gives the company leverage not just to today’s copper price, but to where prices could sit over the next decade.

A diversified base

What I particularly like about BHP is that this copper upside sits within a diversified mining giant.

Iron ore, metallurgical coal, and other commodities continue to generate enormous cash flows, helping fund growth while supporting dividends and balance sheet strength. It is also busy developing the enormous Jansen potash project, which is due to go live in mid-2027.

That diversification matters. It allows BHP to invest counter-cyclically, rather than being forced to pull back at exactly the wrong time.

In other words, I see copper as providing the upside, while the broader portfolio helps manage the risk.

Strong execution

A bullish commodity view only really works if the company can execute, and BHP has been doing exactly that.

Its operational performance has been solid, maintenance programs have been delivered on schedule, and major assets continue to operate at the lower end of the global cost curve. That cost discipline is critical in mining. It means higher prices flow through more cleanly to profits and cash flow.

It also gives BHP more flexibility to keep investing through the cycle, rather than chasing growth at the top.

What this means for the BHP share price

I don’t see the BHP share price as a speculative copper bet. I see the company as a high-quality, large-cap miner that is increasingly aligned with where the global economy is heading.

If copper prices remain elevated or continue to rise as demand accelerates, BHP is well placed to benefit. And if conditions soften, its scale, diversification, and balance sheet provide a buffer many pure-play copper producers simply don’t have.

Foolish Takeaway

I believe the BHP share price remains one of the most attractive long-term mining investments on the ASX. With world-class copper assets, a clear growth pathway, and the financial strength to execute, BHP offers investors exposure to one of the most important commodities of the future, without taking on undue risk.

The post Why I’m bullish on the BHP share price as copper prices surge appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.