Why CBA is forecasting a stronger Aussie dollar in 2026, and what that means if you’re buying ASX shares

While a stronger Australian dollar is likely to be good news for some ASX shares, it’s equally likely to throw up headwinds for others.

That’s important to note here in these early days of 2026, as analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are forecasting an uplift in the Australian dollar this year.

We’ll take look at what a stronger domestic currency could mean for your returns if you’re buying ASX shares below.

But first…

Why CBA forecasts a stronger Aussie dollar in 2026

When I first moved to Australia in 2010, the Aussie dollar roared to US$1.10.

But the past few years have been a very different story. And it’s created different dynamics for ASX shares.

“The nation’s currency has been trending lower since 2021 largely because China’s escalating property crisis has weighed on demand for steel and the iron ore that provides more than $100 billion a year in Australian export income,” CBA noted.

But after hitting a five-year low of 59.22 US cents in April amid global angst over US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the Aussie dollar has staged a strong rebound to currently be fetching 67.22 US cents.

CBA head of FX International and Geo Economics Joseph Capurso noted:

The Aussie typically does well against most currencies when the world economy is in a cyclical upswing. And you’ve seen that at a very extreme level this past year, with the Aussie dollar against the Japanese yen and Aussie-Euro, and the Aussie-Sterling up a bit as well.

Investors in ASX shares could also be eyeing a stronger domestic currency thanks to planned tax cuts in the US.

According to Capurso:

This past year we talked about US tariffs but in 2026 we’re going to be talking about US tax cuts.

Those tax cuts are going to support the US economy, at least for 2026 and probably next year, and will offset some of the negatives from the big increase in tariffs we and global economies have had to absorb.

Atop US tax cuts, the US Fed is also still widely expected to cut interest rates in 2026, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is increasingly expected to hold tight or even increase rates.

CBA noted that interest rate differentials are likely to support the Aussie dollar.

Which ASX shares could benefit and which could suffer?

Every listed company has its own strengths and weaknesses that could see it outperform or underperform in 2026, regardless of the exchange rate.

But, broadly speaking, ASX shares that are heavily reliant on imports, like some of the major ASX 200 electronics and homewares retailers, should enjoy better margins with a stronger domestic currency.

Conversely, companies that are more export oriented, like ASX 200 mining and energy stocks, could face headwinds. That’s because most of these exports (oil, iron ore, gold, copper, etc.) are priced in US dollars, and they’ll receive a lower payback with a stronger Aussie dollar.

The post Why CBA is forecasting a stronger Aussie dollar in 2026, and what that means if you’re buying ASX shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.