Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Bendigo Bank shares

The Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) share price has dipped heavily, dropping 15% since November 2025. Investors may view this as a buying opportunity, but where are earnings expected to go in the coming years?

It’s important to recognise that a share price decline does not automatically translate into better value. Something can go up and seem great value (if it has released a great update) or something can decline and seem expensive.

Let’s take a look at what investors can expect from Bendigo Bank’s earnings between now and FY30.

FY26

We’re currently halfway through the 2026 financial year, though we haven’t seen the numbers – they will be released in February during reporting season.

In December, it was announced that APRA and AUSTRAC have decided on three initial actions against Bendigo Bank that the business will need to address after the self-reported money laundering discovery at one of the branches.

Broker UBS thinks this is expected to have an impact on Bendigo Bank in a few different ways, which is why the Bendigo Bank share price has declined as much as it has in the last couple of months.

First, Bendigo Bank has been instructed to undertake a root cause analysis into non-financial risk beyond anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF).

Second, AUSTRAC has commenced an enforcement investigation which will focus on whether the bank has complied with its obligations under the AML/CTF Act.

Third, APRA will require Bendigo Bank to hold an operational risk capital add-on of $50 million.

However, the unknown is what AUSTRAC will do – it has various enforcement options and there are various appropriate regulatory responses. UBS acknowledged a favourable outcome is possible, though it’s considered unlikely.

But, UBS does foresee that overall costs are likely to move up, even if it doesn’t experience a civil penalty like Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) did several years ago. But, due to the fact Bendigo Bank self-reported, UBS thinks it’s more probable that it will be an enforceable undertaking.

Corrective actions will increase operating costs, which are “already elevated”. This may also take significant time and attention from management and the board.

Taking all of that into account, UBS is predicting that Bendigo Bank could deliver statutory earnings of $440 million in FY26, with underlying net profit of $489 million. The broker suggests the AUSTRAC investigation and likely ramifications are likely to remain an overhang on the Bendigo Bank share price.

FY27

Net profit at the regional ASX bank share is expected to essentially remain flat in the 2027 financial year.

Bendigo Bank is predicted to generate $445 million of statutory net profit in FY27 and $494 million of underlying net profit.

FY28

Net profit is expected to start climbing in the 2028 financial year and beyond, which will be music to the ears of investors after a seemingly difficult period.

UBS projects that in FY28, Bendigo Bank could make $463 million of reported net profit and $514 million of underlying net profit.

FY29

Owners of Bendigo Bank shares could see further progress in the 2029 financial year.

The ASX bank share is projected to generate $498 million of statutory net profit in FY29 and also $554 million of underlying net profit.

FY30

In the 2030 financial year, Bendigo Bank is expected to make the most net profit of this series of projections.

UBS has estimated that the ASX bank share could make $557 million of statutory net profit and $619 million of underlying net profit.

Therefore, the broker is forecasting that the bank could grow its reported net profit by 26% between FY26 and FY30.

UBS currently has a neutral rating on Bendigo Bank shares due to the AUSTRAC issues, but also acknowledges it has already fallen by double digits. The price target is $10.95, implying a possible rise in the single digits within the next year.

The post Here’s the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Bendigo Bank shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Bendigo and Adelaide Bank hit with APRA capital charge, faces AUSTRAC probe
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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bendigo And Adelaide Bank. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.