Is the ANZ share price a buy today?

The ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) share price has been an incredible performer over the last 12 months, rising by close to 30%, as the chart below shows.

There are few times in ANZ’s history where it has risen by so much in just one year.

The ASX bank share’s rise hasn’t yet been driven by a huge jump in earnings, but profit could improve in FY26.

Let’s take a look at whether experts think the business can rise further and how much profit the bank could deliver in FY26.

ANZ share price prediction

A price target is where analysts think the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.

CMC Markets has a collation of eight ratings on the ASX bank share, with an average price target of $34.37. That implies the group of analysts think the ANZ share price could drop by around 8% within a year, from the valuation at the time of writing.

But, that’s just the average price target, there are views that are both more optimistic and more pessimistic. The best price target suggests a possible rise of 8%, while the most pessimistic one implies a possible decline of close to 20% for the ANZ share price.

Time will tell whether analysts are right to be generally negative on the valuation or not.

Which way is net profit projected to go?

The broker pointed out in a note that after ANZ’s AGM in December, the bank’s CEO said there were five priorities.

First, it’s embedding the new leadership team.

Second, it’s aiming to accelerate the integration of Suncorp Bank by June 2027.

Third, it’s delivering the ANZ Plus digital front-end to retail and small and medium enterprise (SME) banking customers by September 2027.

Fourth, it’s aiming to simplify the organisation.

Fifth and finally, it’s looking to enhance its non-financial risk efforts.

UBS highlighted that these priorities are within ANZ’s 2030 strategy, which will be executed in two phases. First, in FY26 and FY27, it’ll focus on substantial productivity improvements and an initial investment for growth. Second, beyond FY27, it’ll look to accelerate growth and outperform the market.

The bank’s success with these efforts could be integral for the ANZ share price.

A key part of ANZ’s targets include reducing its cost-to-income ratio to the mid-40s by FY28 and sustaining that through to FY30, along with improving the return on tangible equity (ROTE) from 10.3% in FY24 to 12% by FY28, then 13% by FY30.

The cost reduction program includes 3,500 staff cuts, with around $543 million in savings – this is underway.

But, at the same time, it plans to increase its number of bankers in retail and business and private banking by up to 50% over the next five years. UBS said it’s targeting top-line revenue growth in a saturated market.

The ASX bank share has some work to do considering it’s still losing market, according to UBS. The new CEO is targeting an improvement in these metrics from March 2026.

UBS predicts that ANZ’s statutory net profit could be $7.28 billion in FY26, with underlying net profit of $7.4 billion. That means the ANZ bank share is trading at 15x FY26’s estimated earnings. The broker UBS rates ANZ shares as a sell.

The post Is the ANZ share price a buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.