Resolute Mining shares have surged 217% in a year. Can the momentum last?

Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG) has emerged as one of the strongest performers among ASX mid-cap gold stocks over the past year, with its share price up an incredible 217%.

After that run, the stock eased late last week, closing down around 2.3% at $1.29 as the gold price softened. Even so, Resolute shares remain well above levels seen a year ago, and recently reached a 5-year high at $1.35.

With the share price having moved sharply higher, attention is now turning to what has driven the rally and whether it can be sustained.

Here are the key factors investors are weighing up.

What’s behind Resolute’s strong run

Resolute Mining is an Australia-listed gold producer with operations in West Africa, including the Syama mine in Mali and the Mako operation in Senegal.

The company has more than 30 years of experience in exploration, development and production, and has produced over 9 million ounces of gold across 10 mines.

While gold miners typically benefit from rising bullion prices, Resolute’s rally has gone beyond simply riding the commodity cycle. Improving project economics, exploration success and a clearer growth strategy have all helped lift investor confidence.

One important catalyst has been updated feasibility work at the Doropo gold project in Cote d’Ivoire. The revised studies point to improved economics and a larger project scope, which could lift Resolute’s long-term production profile once approvals and funding are in place.

The company will host a quarterly webcast and guidance update on Thursday 22 January, where management is expected to discuss its latest quarterly results.

Why investors kept buying even as gold prices dipped

Despite the recent dip, several factors have supported Resolute’s strong performance.

Firstly, the stock still looks reasonably valued compared with many peers on a price-to-sales basis. Resolute trades at roughly 2 times sales, compared with around 6 times for Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), suggesting the market is still pricing Resolute more conservatively.

Secondly, both revenue and earnings have been growing strongly for Resolute, pointing to improving scale and operating momentum.

And finally, expectations around its 2026 guidance have helped underpin sentiment, as investors look for clarity on production and costs.

Even with gold easing slightly, prices remain historically strong. That continues to support Resolute’s cash flow outlook, especially if geopolitical risks or interest rate cuts lift safe-haven demand later this year.

The risks the market is still weighing up

That said, operating in West Africa carries added risk compared with many Australian-based miners.

Resolute has faced challenges in the past, including periods of regulatory uncertainty in Mali and changes in leadership. Political stability, government policy and permitting timelines can all influence operations, sometimes with little warning.

There are also execution risks to consider. Delivering consistent production, controlling costs and managing capital spending remain critical, particularly as the company looks to advance growth projects.

The capital required to develop projects such as Doropo means future returns will depend heavily on management’s ability to execute plans on time and within budget.

What’s next?

Resolute’s 217% share price surge over the past year reflects strong gold prices and improving company fundamentals. However, after such a sharp run, attention is now shifting from momentum to delivery.

With the gold prices softening and a key guidance update approaching, the next few weeks could prove decisive for Resolute shares. Clear targets and steady results may support further upside, while any disappointment could see the stock consolidate after a huge year.

The post Resolute Mining shares have surged 217% in a year. Can the momentum last? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.