Microsoft shares slump as investors are split on the AI capex boom

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) shares slid around 6% in US after-hours trading after the software giant reported its latest quarterly results.

The market’s reaction was in sharp contrast to Meta Platform (NASDAQ: META), whose shares surged, despite both companies committing to massive AI capital expenditure (capex) programs.

For Australian investors, the move is highly relevant. Both Microsoft and Meta are major holdings in several ASX-listed ETFs, including BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT), ETFS FANG+ ETF (ASX: FANG), and Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF (ASX: GXAI).

What did Microsoft report?

At first glance, Microsoft’s result looked strong. Revenue rose 17% year on year to US$81.3 billion, cloud revenue topped US$50 billion for the first time, and adjusted profits climbed more than 20%.

Demand for AI-powered services remains robust, particularly across Azure and Copilot, and management stressed that customer demand still exceeds available supply.

So why did the market sell the stock?

The short answer is spending, its timing, and the narrative around it.

Microsoft’s capital expenditure jumped 66% year on year, driven by an aggressive build-out of data centres, GPUs, and AI infrastructure. While this spending underpins long-term ambitions, it’s hitting earnings now. Investors also focused on slightly slower momentum in Azure growth, which, while still very strong, failed to exceed already-high expectations.

In other words, Microsoft delivered good numbers, but not enough to justify the near-term hit to margins from front-loaded AI investment.

The other issue is the narrative around this capex spend. Investors need reassurance that this massive capex on AI initiatives will deliver a good return on investment, and whilst Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella tried his best to encourage investors to think beyond just Azure into other areas like Copilot, the narrative just wasn’t as convincing as it was with Meta.

Meta also announced eye-watering AI spending, with capital expenditure expected to reach up to US$135 billion next year. Yet its shares jumped.

The difference lies in where the payoff is showing up. Meta convinced investors that AI is already improving advertising performance and accelerating revenue growth, making today’s spending feel like an enabler rather than a drag.

Microsoft’s AI story is arguably broader and deeper, spanning cloud infrastructure, enterprise software, and consumer tools. But it’s also more capital-intensive and slower to translate into visible margin expansion.

Foolish bottom line

For Australian investors, the takeaway isn’t that Microsoft’s AI bet is wrong. Far from it. The company remains one of the best-positioned players in the AI ecosystem, with unmatched enterprise reach and enormous recurring revenues.

Instead, the market reaction highlights a more subtle point: AI spending alone isn’t enough. What matters is how quickly that spending turns into earnings leverage.

Meta showed that link clearly. Microsoft may get there too, but for now, the market is asking for more proof.

Microsoft’s share price drop reflects short-term caution, not long-term doubt. Investors believe in its AI strategy, but they may have to wait a little longer to see when the payoff moves from infrastructure to profits.

The post Microsoft shares slump as investors are split on the AI capex boom appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Kevin Gandiya has positions in Microsoft and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended BetaShares Nasdaq 100 ETF. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.