Are ASX lithium shares running out of steam?

ASX lithium shares have snapped out of their funk. After languishing near multi-year lows, prices have surged in recent months as battery demand rebounds and supply tightens.

Benchmark spodumene prices are breaking levels not seen in years, and Australian lithium stocks are moving fast in response.

ASX lithium shares like Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), and Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) have all ripped to fresh 52-week highs as the market begins to price in a new demand-driven cycle.

Investors are starting to believe the brutal 2023–24 bear market is finally in the rear-view mirror. But can the lithium rally be sustained?

Liontown Resources

This ASX lithium share is the comeback story. Written off during the downturn, the company has re-emerged as a poster child for the lithium rebound thanks to its Kathleen Valley project.

Shares have surged 173% over the past 12 months as higher spodumene prices combine with shipments under long-term offtake agreements. A strong cash position and strategic deals with battery makers add credibility to the rally.

That said, Liontown’s earnings remain highly sensitive to lithium prices, and cost inflation could bite if the cycle turns. If prices hold firm, the ASX stock could keep grinding higher. But this remains a momentum-fuelled story.

Brokers’ sentiment is divided. However, Bell Potter remains bullish on this lithium miner, assigning a buy rating and a $2.42 price target. That points to potential 34% upside over the next 12 months.

The broker says the company is well positioned to capitalise on rising lithium prices, pointing to the strength and quality of its Kathleen Valley project.

IGO

This ASX lithium stock offers a steadier way to play the theme. Unlike pure lithium miners, IGO leans on diversified exposure to nickel and copper, helping cushion commodity swings.

Recent results showed a sharp lift in EBITDA, highlighting the strength of its broader operations even as lithium processing challenges linger. Its stake in Greenbushes and downstream refining provides long-term leverage, but also operational complexity.

Investors chasing stability over explosive upside may prefer IGO, especially if base metals remain supportive.

Analysts are cautious and most rate the ASX lithium share neutral with a 12-month average price target of $8.32, identical to the share price at the time of writing.

Core Lithium

Core Lithium is the high-risk, high-reward option. After shelving production at the depths of the downturn, the ASX lithium share is now gearing up for a restart of the Finniss project. It’s backed by higher reserves and lower-cost plans.

The market has jumped on the turnaround narrative, sending shares sharply higher – 164% in the past 12 months. Execution risk remains significant, and funding is always a hurdle. If lithium prices stay elevated and the restart delivers, the upside could be dramatic.

In January, Canaccord Genuity reiterated its buy rating on the ASX lithium share and lifted its price target from 27 cents to 40 cents.

This suggests a potential upside of more than 65% over 12 months.

The post Are ASX lithium shares running out of steam? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.