Is this ASX materials stock still a buy after rising 50% in the last year?

Orica Ltd (ASX: ORI) has been one of the many ASX materials stocks charging higher in the last 12 months. 

The company is a leading global manufacturer and supplier of explosives and blasting systems, primarily to the mining industry. 

It is the world’s number one supplier of commercial explosives with operations across more than 100 countries and an approximate market share of around 28%.

Its share price has risen by 50% in the last 12 months. 

This helped it qualify as one of the 10 best ASX 200 large-cap shares of 2025. 

For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 4.5% in that same period. 

It seems there could be more growth ahead for this ASX materials stock. 

A new report from Bell Potter released yesterday included a price target increase, along with an unchanged buy recommendation. 

Here is what the broker had to say. 

Market dynamics still favourable 

According to yesterday’s report, mining activity across the company’s two largest Blasting Solutions geographies (Australia Pacific & Asia and North America) continue to exhibit positive momentum in FY26TD.

Bell Potter said in Australia, the iron ore majors delivered record production in the Dec’ 25 quarter. 

In addition, the rapid appreciation of spodumene concentrate prices has prompted producers to assess plans to reactivate idled production capacity. 

Looking ahead, the Australian government projects iron ore and gold production CAGR of 3% and 12% over FY25-27, respectively.

Based on estimates, mining-related activity in North America was about 5% higher in Oct – Nov 2025 compared to Oct – Nov 2024.

In Canada, production of copper concentrate, gold and coal grew 13%, 8% and 1% YoY in Oct-Nov’25.

In summary, Bell Potter believes this ASX materials stock is benefiting from strong momentum across global mining and exploration.

This is being driven by rising production, higher commodity prices, and surging exploration funding – supporting confidence in higher activity levels and making the upgraded mid-teens Digital Solutions EBIT growth target achievable.

Target price rises for the ASX materials stock

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter lifted its price target to $28.50 from $26.00, while EPS forecasts remain unchanged.

The broker retained its buy recommendation. 

From yesterday’s closing price of $26.03, this indicates an approximate upside of 9.49%. 

The broker said EBIT growth is expected to continue on the back of strong mining and exploration conditions, solid operations and product mix. 

We expect EBIT growth momentum to be sustained in the short-to-medium term underpinned by cyclical tailwinds in mining and exploration markets. EBIT growth is expected to be supported by further premium product uptake, robust facility performance across AN and sodium cyanide supply networks and commercial discipline.

The post Is this ASX materials stock still a buy after rising 50% in the last year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.