Copper price forecast for 2026: Goldman Sachs

ASX copper shares are higher on Tuesday as the copper price continues its recovery from the recent commodities sell-off.

The copper price surged to a new closing price record of US$13,694 per tonne last month.

It then plunged to a low of US$12,763 per tonne on 5 February before rebounding to US$13,117 per tonne today.

The rout was sparked by the US President’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the new Federal Reserve chair.

Warsh is seen as hawkish, so his selection strengthened the US dollar, which led to a metals sell-off as investors scrambled to take profits.

The copper price rose by 42% in 2025 and is 4.8% higher in 2026-to-date.

The red metal’s ascendancy has pushed many ASX copper shares higher.

Last month, the Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) share price soared to a record high of $21.75.

Today, Sandfire shares are $19.43, up 0.3%.

Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC) shares also hit an all-time high of $17.83 per share last month.

On Tuesday, Capstone Copper shares are $16.60, up 3.6%.

The Global X Copper Miners AUD ETF (ASX: WIRE) also reached a record $28.98 per unit in January.

Today, WIRE ETF is $25.55 per unit, up 3.2%.

Why is the copper price rising?

Copper is benefiting from increasing global demand due to the energy transition.

Copper is essential for electrification in the major infrastructure being built to create a greener energy supply, such as wind turbines.

Top broker Goldman Sachs says new grid and power infrastructure built in 2025 required more than 11,300 kilotonnes of copper.

On top of that, electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables required 4,118 kilotonnes.

The building industry in China used 3,471 kilotonnes of copper last year, and data centres ate up 369 kilotonnes, the broker said.

The copper price is also being pushed higher by the debasement trade.

A debasement trade occurs when currencies weaken.

This inspires investors to move from paper assets, like cash and bonds, into hard assets, like metals, and particularly gold.

The most notable currency losing value right now is the US dollar, which is the world’s primary reserve currency.

Reflecting rising interest in copper, leading global metals specialist, Sprott, launched the world’s first physical copper fund in mid-2024.

After 18 months of trading, the Sprott Physical Copper Trust (TSE: COP.U) has a net asset value of $190 million at US$11.87 per unit.

Sprott says:

Demand for electricity is estimated to increase 157% by 2050 as middle classes grow in the East, clean energy technologies proliferate, electric vehicles (EVs) gain market shares and artificial intelligence (AI) data centers provide a new demand shock for copper markets.

Amid rising long-term demand, the copper price is also supported by restricted long-term supply.

Sprott analysts Paul Wong and Jacob White say it takes an average of 17 years to develop a copper mine from discovery to production.

Sprott says:

While Chile is the world’s largest copper producer, ore grades are declining and supply disruptions are common.

Major new copper discoveries are infrequent, and lead times and costs to develop new mines are significant.

Based on projections, copper supplies are not expected to keep up with the growing demand for copper over time.

In the short-term, Goldman Sachs noted a 600 kilotonne (kt) surplus of supply in 2025, the largest absolute surplus since 2009, after miners ramped up production to meet rising demand.

But in the long term, Goldman acknowledges the ‘unique constraints’ in copper mining production.

What’s next for the copper price?

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs Research increased its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026.

The team expects the copper price to remain about $13,000 per tonne before declining to $11,200 per tonne by the end of the year.

The decline relies on the assumption that the US will announce a 15% tariff on refined copper by mid-2026, to be implemented in 2027.

Analyst Eoin Dinsmore said US buyers have been stockpiling copper to get ahead of the possible tax.

But there is uncertainty as to whether a tariff will eventuate — either this year or at all — particularly given that affordability remains a key focus in the lead up to US mid-term elections in November.

This uncertainty continues to support the copper price at current levels.

Dinsmore said:

We are very likely in the late stages of this rally, but US economic growth, AI spending, and US stockpiling will likely remain supportive in the coming months.

However, Dinsmore said the copper price had “overshot its fair fundamental level” and a decision on tariffs should provide a “catalyst for a correction”.

That’s the short-term picture.

In the long term, Goldman favours copper over other industrial metals like aluminium, lithium, and iron ore.

In its 2026 Commodities Outlook, the broker said:

Despite the recent rally in copper prices and our expected consolidation in 2026, it remains our ‘favorite’ industrial metal, especially in the long-run, as electrification — which drives nearly half of copper demand — implies structurally strong demand growth and as copper mine supply faces unique constraints.

The post Copper price forecast for 2026: Goldman Sachs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Global X Copper Miners ETF. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.