Near 52-week lows: Which ASX media share is the smarter buy?

These reputable ASX media shares have dropped to near year-lows.

Both News Corporation (ASX: NWS) and Nine Entertainment Co Holdings Ltd (ASX: NEC) shares have lost about 30% of their value in the past 6 months.

With the ASX media shares well below their highs, is this a buying opportunity, or are tougher times still ahead?

News Corp

News Corp remains one of the world’s most influential media companies. The heavyweight ASX media share owns mastheads such as The Wall Street Journal and The Australian, alongside book publisher HarperCollins and digital platforms like Dow Jones.

The company’s strength lies in its premium content and subscription-led model. Paid digital news and data services have helped insulate News Corp from the worst of the advertising downturn.

Last week, the company reported net income of US$242 million, down 21% on the prior corresponding quarter, which had been boosted by a one-off gain from REA Group’s sale of PropertyGuru.

Total segment EBITDA rose 9% to US$521 million, though this included a US$16 million one-off inventory write-down at HarperCollins.

But weaknesses persist. Traditional print remains in structural decline, and the business is still exposed to cyclical advertising markets. News Corp also faces ongoing reputational, regulatory scrutiny, and past political and governance controversies.

The ASX media share trades at $37.26 apiece at the time of writing, having lost 27% of its value in the past 6 months. Most analysts see this as a good entry level and rate News Corp as a buy. Their average 12-month price target is $54.07, which implies a 43% upside.  

Analysts at Macquarie said News Corp’s latest results beat expectations across revenue, EBITDA, and net profit, while profitability had continued to improve. The broker has a price target of $44.40 on the shares. Factoring in the company’s modest dividend yield, Macquarie is expecting a total shareholder return of 16.4% over 12 months.

UBS is more bullish on News Corp shares, with a price target of $65.50, pointing to a 75% upside.

Nine Entertainment

The ASX media share has been under heavy pressure for much of the past year, sliding around 32% in the past 6 months. Slowing TV advertising, structural shifts in media consumption, and capital management concerns have weighed on the sentiment of the Nine Entertainment share.

Despite cost discipline and occasional earnings resilience, Nine’s share price remained anchored well below its highs. It reflects deep caution toward traditional broadcasters. The business remains heavily exposed to free-to-air television, a segment under pressure from softer advertising markets.

That caution cracked when the ASX media stock unveiled plans to acquire QMS Media for roughly $850 million while exiting radio and reshaping its regional television footprint.

QMS is expected to generate about $105 million in EBITDA in calendar year 2026, which would be a double-digit increase over the previous year, Nine said. The merger should also deliver about $20 million in annual cost savings by FY29, according to the board of Nine Entertainment.

The market responded swiftly, pushing the ASX share higher as investors reassessed the company’s direction. The share price recovered slightly and is now up 4% for the year, hovering just above the 52-week low at $1.15 at the time of writing.

The focus now shifts to execution. Nine must stabilise earnings from traditional media while accelerating growth across digital assets such as Stan.

Most brokers continue to rate the ASX media stock a buy following its sharp decline. The average 12-month price target sits at $1.29, suggesting potential upside of about 11%.

The post Near 52-week lows: Which ASX media share is the smarter buy? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nine Entertainment. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.