Here’s an ASX 200 share that I think could beat BHP in 2026

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are up 0.76% in early morning trade on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the shares are trading at $50.64 each.

That puts the shares 10.66% higher for the year to date and 16.22% above where they were this time last year.

The iron ore mining giant’s shares have rocketed higher this year, following its first-half production update last month. It revealed that its iron ore production had risen 2%, to 134 million tonnes, over the first half of FY26, thanks to record shipments at its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operation.

I don’t think it would take much for the miner’s share price to push higher this year, especially if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen this year or the resources and commodities boom accelerates.

But there is another ASX mining stock which I think could outpace BHP gains over the next 12 months.

The ASX 200 share that could beat BHP

South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) shares are also trading higher on Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, the metals miner’s shares are 0.33% higher at $4.60 a piece. For the year to date, the shares have stormed an impressive 29.72% higher, and they’re now up a huge 34.26% for the year. The gains are significantly higher than those from BHP.

South32 has benefited from a perfect storm of strong central bank buying, falling US interest rates, and dwindling expectations for the US dollar. These have all driven investors to safe-haven commodities like gold, silver, and copper. 

The company mines and produces commodities, including bauxite, aluminium, copper, silver, lead, zinc, nickel, manganese, and metallurgical coal, so it has been well-positioned to absorb the uptick in demand across several minerals and metals.

South32’s exposure to the commodities and precious metals, which are enjoying strong demand, could help the miner deliver faster earnings growth than BHP’s iron-ore-heavy portfolio.

Its diversity across a range of markets could also support stronger price growth. It could also help protect the share price from supply-and-demand fluctuations across different markets. 

It’s not just the miner’s diversity that could help it outpace BHP this year. South32 has also been enjoying strong operational momentum over the past six months. Last month, the miner announced that it had exceeded expectations for first-half production. Alumina production was up 3% in the first half. Meanwhile, aluminium production was up 2%, zinc up 13%, and manganese up 58%. Overall, the company’s results were ahead of consensus. 

If this momentum continues, alongside a continued uptick of commodity demand and prices, I think South32 could grow at a faster pace than BHP in 2026. And I think its shares could well follow suit.

What do analysts expect from the two stocks this year?

BHP shares are forecast to increase up to 10.43% over the next 12 months, to $56.01. South32 shares are tipped to rise up to 13.03% from the current share price, to $5.21 a piece.

The post Here’s an ASX 200 share that I think could beat BHP in 2026 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.