Why did this broker just downgrade its price target on this exciting technology stock?

Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT) is an exciting ASX technology stock. It has drawn plenty of positive attention in the last couple of years. 

The company is a leading global provider of elite athlete wearing tracking solutions and also analytics for athlete tracking. 

It is one of the standout, good-quality tech stocks in the mid-cap space. 

The key target market of Catapult is elite sporting teams and organisations. 

According to Bell Potter, the pro sports technology market is currently valued at US$36bn in 2025. It is forecast to double to US$72bn by 2030.

These signs all point towards a positive long-term outlook for this ASX technology stock. 

Analysis from Bell Potter agrees there is plenty of upside for Catapult Sports shares. 

So why did the broker just reduce its price target on this technology stock?

Let’s find out. 

Lack of catalysts 

This ASX technology stock has experienced some significant volatility over the last 12 months. 

Its share price closed yesterday at $3.53. 

Overall, it is down 7% over the last 12 months. 

What’s more intriguing is the fact that it is down 52% since its yearly highs last October. 

According to Bell Potter, there is some potential for Catapult to be removed from the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) at the next rebalance in March. 

The broker also noted Catapult will not report its next result till May, and it does not expect much news flow between now and then.

Updated forecast

In yesterday’s report, Bell Potter updated its FY26 statutory forecasts for this technology stock to include approximately US$3.8 million in flagged transaction costs related to the IMPECT acquisition, which were previously excluded. 

As a result, statutory EBITDA for FY26 has been reduced by 22% from US$17.2 million to US$13.4 million, although the underlying (management) EBITDA forecast remains unchanged.

The inclusion of these transaction costs also lowers FY26 operating and free cash flow forecasts, partly offset by revised working capital assumptions. 

Bell Potter now forecasts FY26 free cash flow of US$6.8 million, down from US$7.7 million previously, but still expects higher underlying free cash flow than FY25 (US$10.6 million forecast vs US$8.6 million actual in FY25, excluding transaction costs).

No need to panic 

Based on this guidance, Bell Potter reduced its price target to $5.50 (previously A$6.50). 

However, this still suggests plenty of upside for this technology stock. 

The broker also maintained its buy recommendation.

Based on yesterday’s closing price of $3.53, Bell Potter’s new target is an upside of 55.8%. 

The post Why did this broker just downgrade its price target on this exciting technology stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Catapult Sports. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.