Why this ASX copper stock could be a better buy than Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares roared higher on Thursday, closing the day at $168.63.

This leaves the mining giant’s shares close to a record high.

While this is great for shareholders, it could mean the rest of us have missed the boat on this one.

But never fear, Bell Potter has named another ASX copper stock with major upside potential.

Which ASX copper stock?

The stock that Bell Potter is bullish on is Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS).

It was pleased with its half-year results release this week but concedes that it fell short of consensus estimates. The broker said:

AIS has released its 1HFY26 financial report, with key metrics in-line with our forecasts but a miss vs consensus. Key metrics included: revenue: $306m vs BPe $299m (cons. $311m); EBITDA: $116m vs BPe $114m (cons. $128m); NPAT: $48m vs BPe $53m (cons. $72m). Following an equity raise during the period and debt repayment, AIS is now debt free. At end December AIS held cash and metal receivables of $113m with nil drawn debt for net cash $113m. This was up from a net cash position of $14m at end June 2025.

Overall, the broker felt that this was a good result from the ASX copper stock. It adds:

We view this as a good result, with the financial performance reflecting the strengthening outlook for the business and demonstrating earnings leverage to rising copper and gold prices. EBITDA margins lifted to 37% from 28% vs PcP as a result of good cost control and rising copper and gold prices. Operating cash flow lifted 67%, to $97.3m from $58.3m vs PcP. Earnings lifted by 62% vs the PcP, to $48m as this performance flowed through.

We point out that new / current AIS shareholders have the benefit of historic tax losses. On our forecasts we do not expect AIS to pay cash tax until 2HFY27. AIS has maintained its FY26 guidance, implying strong production growth and steady costs to finish the year.

Big returns could be on the way

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and 90 cents price target on Aeris’ shares.

Based on its current share price of 53 cents, this implies potential upside of 70% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

AIS is a copper-dominant producer, with its near-term outlook highly leveraged to the copper price, increasing production at Tritton and gold production at Cracow. Tritton is a strategic regional asset and potential corporate target, in our view. With upside to our Target Price supported by low valuation multiples it remains a key pick for CY26. Our Target Price of $0.90/sh is unchanged on this update and we maintain our Buy recommendation.

The post Why this ASX copper stock could be a better buy than Rio Tinto appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 9,200 points: ASX 200 hits fresh new record high
• How to target earnings season winners with ASX ETFs
• Own Rio Tinto or Mineral Resources shares? Here are the updated expert ratings post-results
• Which ASX stock is pushing higher after strong half-year results
• Here’s the dividend forecast out to 2030 for Rio Tinto shares

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.