This ASX 200 premium stock crashes 58% – bargain or value trap?

This S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock has slumped hard. Over 12 months, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares have plunged 58% at the time of writing.

Over the past year, the ASX 200 stock has hit multi-year lows amid earnings guidance withdrawals, paused interim dividends, and major write-downs that shook investor confidence.

Is there more drama to come from the owner of Penfolds, 19 Crimes, and Lindeman’s, or are things starting to look up?

Bad news show

Earlier this month, Treasury Wine reported a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) loss of $649.4 million. That’s down from a $221 million profit in H1 FY 2025.

The half-year loss blew out after the company booked a $751 million post-tax hit, driven by non-cash impairments tied to its US assets.

It sent the price of the $3.8 billion ASX 200 share lower as shareholders reassessed a strategy that was once built on premium wine growth and global brand strength.

Portfolio of luxury wines

On the surface, the ASX 200 company has real strengths. Its portfolio of premium and luxury wines still resonates in markets worldwide. Strength in brands and margins when conditions normalise underpins the bull thesis.

This downturn could represent a compelling entry point for contrarian buyers who believe in the long-term wine category and this premium ASX 200 stock’s place in it. 

No dividend, first time in decade

But there are real risks that make value investors nervous. The shift away from dividend payouts, the suspension of guidance, and weak demand in key markets underline deeper structural issues.  

Especially the decision to suspend the ASX 200 stock’s dividend didn’t go down well with investors. That means that FY 2026 will be the first year in more than a decade that stockholders won’t receive two dividends from the global wine company.

The board of Treasury Wine said its near-term focus is on market execution, cash flow, and accelerating the benefits from its Project Ascent program. This aims to achieve $100 million in annual cost savings over two to three years.

The company forecasts better earnings in the second half of FY 2026.

What next for the ASX 200 shares?

Analysts have responded differently, with some maintaining hold ratings and modest price targets that sit well below past highs.

Morgans has stuck with its hold rating on Treasury Wine Estates after sizing up its 1H FY26 result. And it wasn’t exactly impressed.

Morgans added:

TWE reiterated that 2H26 EBITS is expected to be higher than the 1H26. It is too early to call whether TWE can grow earnings in FY27.

We think this will not occur until FY28 given the priority to reduce customer inventory in the US and China.

It will take time for new management to deliver more acceptable returns and for TWE to rebuild credibility with the market.

Still, Morgans nudged its 12-month price target up from $5.25 to $5.30 a share, implying potential upside of 15% from current levels.

The post This ASX 200 premium stock crashes 58% – bargain or value trap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.