Down almost 40% and at a 52-week low, should you buy this ASX 200 tech stock?

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) shares hit a 52-week low of $45.88 today. That leaves the gaming stock down almost 40% from its high.

When a high-quality ASX 200 tech stock falls that far, I think it’s worth looking if this has created a buying opportunity.

In Aristocrat’s case, I believe it has.

Why is this ASX 200 tech stock out of favour?

One of the big concerns weighing on gaming and software-related ASX shares this year has been artificial intelligence (AI).

Investors are asking whether AI-generated content could lower barriers to entry in gaming, reduce differentiation, or allow competitors to catch up more quickly. In theory, that could pressure margins and market share.

But when I look at Aristocrat’s recent annual general meeting update from last month, I see a company leaning into AI rather than running from it. Management highlighted that AI investment across the group is focused on improving content creation, speeding up prototyping, enhancing quality control, and accelerating delivery into market segments.

In other words, AI is being used as a productivity and innovation tool, not something that replaces Aristocrat’s core competitive advantages.

This is still a content-led business. Aristocrat’s strength lies in its intellectual property, deep customer relationships, hardware integration, and global distribution footprint. AI might change how games are built, but it does not automatically recreate decades of brand equity and installed base scale.

The core business is still performing

Strip away the noise, and Aristocrat is still growing. In FY25, revenue was $6.3 billion, up 11%, with EBITDA margins expanding to 41.7%. That is not the profile of a business in structural decline.

In North America, Aristocrat lifted its gaming operations market share to 43% and outright sales share to 31%, both all-time highs. It also held 9 of the top 10 premium leased indexing game titles in December 2025, according to industry data.

Those numbers tell me that, despite investor anxiety, customers are still voting with their wallets.

The ASX 200 tech stock is also pushing deeper into online real money gaming and iLottery, where it holds roughly a 70% share of the US iLottery market. That segment alone represents a long runway for expansion.

A stronger, more focused Aristocrat

Another underappreciated point, in my view, is the significant work that has been done to simplify and focus the portfolio.

The sale of Plarium and Big Fish’s social casual assets means Aristocrat is now more tightly aligned around land-based gaming, social casino, and regulated online gaming. Management has also emphasised its strong balance sheet and minimal leverage.

That matters in volatile markets. A strong balance sheet gives flexibility. It allows continued investment in design and development, selective acquisitions, and share buybacks when appropriate.

From what I can see, this is not a company scrambling to defend itself. It is one that CEO Trevor Coker believes has laid “significant foundational work” for sustainable long-term success.

So, should you buy?

At $45.88 and consensus estimates pointing to earnings per share of $2.58 in FY26, this ASX 200 tech stock is trading on a forward P/E ratio of just 18x.

I think that indicates that the market is pricing in a lot of fear. But when I look at the fundamentals, I see a global leader with growing market share, expanding margins, strong cash flow, and multiple growth avenues across land-based and online gaming.

That does not eliminate risk. AI could reshape the industry faster than expected. Regulatory changes could impact online growth. Execution always matters.

However, for long-term investors willing to tolerate some volatility, I think the current risk-reward looks far more attractive than it did near the highs.

The post Down almost 40% and at a 52-week low, should you buy this ASX 200 tech stock? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.