How much could the BHP share price rise in the next year?

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has soared more than 20% in the last six months, but it has also dropped more than 13% since 2 March 2026. That’s plenty of volatility!

It will be very interesting to see whether the ASX mining share can deliver further capital growth from here.

Experts have given their view on how much the BHP share price could climb (or not) from here.

BHP share price target

A price target tells investors where the analyst think the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.

Of course, just because an analyst has a price target on a business doesn’t automatically mean it will rise or fall to that level, but it can indicate whether experts view the business as undervalued, overvalued or fairly valued.

According to the Commsec collation of analyst recommendations, there are currently two sell ratings, 11 hold ratings and seven buy ratings on the business.

However, with the strength of the BHP share price this year, it doesn’t offer significant capital growth potential in the shorter-term. According to CMC Invest, the average price target from more than a dozen analysts on the ASX mining share right now is $51.79, which suggests a possible rise of 1% over the next year. That implies it’s fairly valued.

The optimistic price target is $68.05, which implies a possible rise of 33% over the next year. However, the most pessimistic price target suggests a decline of 33% could happen.

One of the brokers that rates the mining giant as a hold is UBS, which has a price target of $52 on the business, implying a slight rise from where it is today.

What’s to like about the ASX mining share?

UBS recently released a note about BHP’s Vicuna copper project, which it owns 50% of. It said this is a multi-generational copper growth opportunity. It has the potential to be the largest mining project in Argentina, with production targeted of around 700kt per year.

With capital expenditure of more than $18 billion, Vicuna could be the largest single copper project in history, according to UBS. Development of Vicuna is planned over three stages to manage capital expenditure, reduce execution risk and allow latter stages to be self-funded. Stage one targets first production in 2030.

UBS currently projects that the business could achieve an internal rate of return (IRR) at between 17% to 19%.

I like that BHP continues to increase its exposure to copper, which represented just over half of earnings in the first half of FY26.

UBS estimates that the business could generate net profit of US$12.5 billion in FY26 and US$14.3 billion in FY30. The broker thinks there is better risk/reward elsewhere, which is why it only rates the BHP share price as neutral rather than a buy.

The post How much could the BHP share price rise in the next year? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• Australia’s next great ASX mining boom: Are we already in it?
• Own BHP stock? Here’s why the miner is down 13% in a week
• Should investors buy the dip on these ASX 200 shares?
• This would be my $1 million ASX retirement portfolio

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.