Treasury Wine shares just tumbled to 14-year lows. Screaming bargain or falling knife?

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are sinking today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) global wine company closed yesterday trading for $3.54. In afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $3.38 apiece, down 4.5%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.2% at this same time.

This will come as unwelcome news to the company’s shareholders, though not to the host of short sellers betting against the stock. Treasury Wine kicked off the week as the third most shorted stock on the ASX, with a short interest of 15.1%.

Unfortunately for those faithful stockholders, today’s underperformance is far from unusual for the wine company.

Indeed, following today’s slump, you’d have to go back to March 2012 to find Treasury Wine shares trading at a lower level.

What’s been pressuring the ASX 200 stock?

Treasury Wine shares have been in a downward trend for more than a year, with the stock down 65.7% over the past 12 months.

The company has faced a number of headwinds, including tougher trading conditions in some of its core markets, such as China and the United States.

Consumer drinking habits are also changing, with a shift in focus towards more premium-oriented wines.

These headwinds were apparent when the company released its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 16 February.

Net sales revenue of $1.3 billion was down 16% year on year, while earnings before interest and tax declined by 39.6% from H1 FY 2025 to $236.4 million. And with the company posting a statutory net loss of $649.4 million, management suspended the Treasury Wine dividend.

Treasury Wine shares closed down 5.2% on the day of the results release.

Are Treasury Wine shares now on sale?

It’s never easy trying to call the bottom on a stock that’s lost two-thirds of its value in a year.

According to consensus analyst recommendation on CommSec, the ASX 200 wine company is a hold, with two strong buy recommendations, two moderate buy recommendations, 11 hold recommendations, and two strong sell recommendations.

There are a few reasons I’m modestly optimistic about the potential for a material turnaround over the medium term.

Among them, the company’s shifting focus to premium brands and its Project Ascent program. This program aims to achieve $100 million in annual cost savings over two to three years.

Commenting on the program, CEO Sam Fischer said:

It is a disciplined, multi-year transformation program designed to sharpen our portfolio, simplify the organisation and optimise our cost base, and I am pleased with the progress we have made to date.

Also, while I’m not prone to mimicking the investments made by billionaires, I do tend to take note.

And on that note, news emerged in early March that French billionaire Olivier Goudet had invested another $41.7 million in Treasury Wine shares since mid-January. That sees Goudet holding around 7.1% of the company’s outstanding shares.

The post Treasury Wine shares just tumbled to 14-year lows. Screaming bargain or falling knife? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.