Down 50% in the past year, are these ASX 200 shares too cheap to ignore?

Despite tariff turmoil and geopolitical conflict, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has shown resilience in the past year. 

Australia’s benchmark index sits 14% higher today than it did a year ago. 

But it hasn’t been smooth sailing for every ASX 200 company. 

Three recognisable names have been heavily sold off in that span: 

• Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) is down 50% in the last 12 months
• REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA) has fallen almost 26%
• Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) is 22% lower

However, all three of these ASX 200 stocks have shown signs of life this month, rebounding from near 52-week lows. 

Is this a sign of a longer-term recovery, or a value trap?

Let’s see what experts are saying. 

Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates is an Australia-based global wine company. 

It is among the world’s top five wine producers and owns a portfolio of more than 70 brands, including Australian labels such as Penfolds, Lindemans, and Wolf Blass.

It has been one of the worst-performing ASX 200 stocks, and actually hit its lowest point in over 10 years recently.

Several headwinds have influenced this historic drop: 

• Parallel imports disrupting pricing integrity in China have been specifically called out as a problem for the company’s Penfolds brand
• The company flagged a major impairment tied to its US business in early December 2025, as long-term growth assumptions were marked down in a softer American wine market
• Treasury Wine pulled its earnings guidance for 2026 and paused an A$200 million share buyback, citing weak sales of its flagship Penfolds wines in China

In summary, the deeper structural issue is that Penfolds in China and luxury US brands have stalled simultaneously in both key markets, leaving investors questioning whether the company’s valuation premium was ever justified.

In the last month, the ASX 200 stock has recovered 13%. 

Despite this small recovery, brokers are largely neutral on this ASX 200 stock, with 12 out of 17 analysts listing it as a hold. 

REA Group

REA Group is an online real estate advertising company that provides property and property-related services on websites and mobile apps. 

In the last 12 months, this ASX 200 stock has fallen significantly; however, since late March, it has recovered more than 16%.

It was weighed down over the past year by negative sentiment driven by AI disruption fears. 

Despite these fears, experts have reiterated this year that REA’s market position should hold it in good stead and that replacement worries are perhaps overblown. 

It closed yesterday at $176.44, which brokers believe is a relative value. 

12 out of 15 analysts via TradingView list it as either a buy or strong buy, with an average price target suggesting 20% upside. 

Aristocrat Leisure

Aristocrat Leisure is an Australian gaming technology company licensed in around 340 gaming jurisdictions in more than 100 countries. 

This ASX 200 stock has also rebounded slightly from its yearly lows this month. 

Since late March, it has climbed 7%. 

Experts believe this can continue long term.

It received a buy recommendation yesterday from the team at Catapult Wealth, and currently has a one-year average price target of $65.35 based on 15 analyst ratings. 

This price target is 36% higher than yesterday’s closing price of $47.93.

The post Down 50% in the past year, are these ASX 200 shares too cheap to ignore? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.