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Which of the big four bank shares has the most upside?

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ASX bank shares have slid over the last week along with the broader S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). 

Over the last five days, Australia’s benchmark index has fallen 2%. 

Similarly for big four bank shares: 

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is down 3.24%
  • National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) has fallen 1.9%
  • ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) is down 2.6%
  • Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) is only down 0.8%. 

The big four banks dominate the Australian market, with more than 75% market share.

This makes them very attractive to many investors, who often see a decline of just 3-5% as an opportunity to increase their position.

Investors target these blue-chip holdings for steady growth and consistent dividends, rather than sudden, exponential growth.

With that in mind, let’s see if recent share price weakness makes these bank shares worth scooping up. 

Morgans bearish on the big four bank shares

The Motley Fool’s James Mickleboro reported last week that the team at Morgans sees more downside in the short term for these ASX bank shares. 

At the time of writing, it has the following price targets on each of these shares: 

  • A sell rating and $124.26 price target on CBA shares – indicating a 28% downside
  • A sell rating and $34.56 price target on NAB shares – suggesting a 14% drop
  • A sell rating with a $34.06 price target on Westpac shares – indicating a 12% decline. 
  • A sell rating and $30.72 price target on ANZ shares – a downside of just over 14% from current levels. 

What are other brokers saying?

Amongst the big four banks, sentiment appears to be the most negative towards CBA shares. 

In the past week, Catapult Wealth’s Dylan Evans said now could be an opportune time for investors to take profits (courtesy of The Bull).

Similarly, Damien Nguyen from Morgans also placed a sell rating on the market’s biggest company.

On the flip side, ANZ is still generating some positive views from brokers. 

Of the 14 analysts forecasting this big four bank via TradingView, the highest price target of $43 per share indicates a 19% upside. 

What about dividends?

For those investors more focussed on passive income rather than capital growth, ASX bank shares remain a viable option. 

Westpac paid a total of $1.54 per share last financial year. 

This equates to a dividend yield of approximately 3.85%. This is forecast to increase to $1.605 per share in FY26, and again to $1.64 per share in FY27.

Similarly, ANZ shares are currently trading on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.4%.

The post Which of the big four bank shares has the most upside? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in National Australia Bank. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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