Ampol shares surge 50% to a two-year high: Buy, sell or hold?

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have climbed another 1.85% in Wednesday afternoon trading to a two-year high of $34.90.

The uptick also means the Australian petroleum company’s shares are now 8.6% higher year to date and 50% higher than this time 12 months ago.

What is driving Ampol shares higher?

Ampol is the largest transport energy distributor and retailer in Australia, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country as of June 2025. Its shares have rocketed higher on the back of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about global oil supply.

Ampol shares have jumped 24% higher since the war between the US and Iran ramped up in late February.

While news that the two nations could be reaching a peace deal temporarily dented Ampol’s share price earlier this month, failure to agree on terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil supplies to flow back through saw demand spike back up again.

As of late April, the two nations are in a temporary, but unstable, ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz is partially open, but supply continues to be very constrained and unpredictable. 

While news that increased supply has helped cool the price of WTI crude oil, it is still significantly higher than earlier this year. Trading Economics data shows WTI crude oil is currently around US$100 per barrel, up from around US$60 per barrel seen in late February.

Prices for Brent oil, gasoline, and heating oil have also cooled, but remain much higher than before the conflict situation escalated.

And it’s not just fuel prices

Ampol shares have also been driven higher recently off the back of some good news announcements out of the company.

Last week, the Aussie fuel supplier said it has submitted a formal remedy offer with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) about a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator EG Australia. Ampol revealed it is now offering 41 retail fuel sites for divestment, up from the previously proposed 37, in an effort to address competition concerns raised by the ACCC.

Also last week, Ampol posted its Q1 FY26 trading update, where it confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production.

The company said it has locked in diesel and jet fuel supply through to the end of May, and gasoline supplies to the end of June, despite rising landed crude costs. 

It confirmed that demand from both consumers and commercial customers in Australia and New Zealand has remained stable despite recent price increases.

Are Ampol shares a buy, sell, or hold?

Analysts think there is still some upside left for Ampol shares this year. TradingView data shows that out of 10 analysts, seven have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock.

The average $36.77 target price implies a 5% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. Whereas, the maximum $40.80 target pierce implies a potential 17% increase in value.

The post Ampol shares surge 50% to a two-year high: Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.