Forget Rio Tinto shares and buy this ASX copper miner

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are a popular option for investors aiming for copper exposure.

But another smart way to do it could be with ASX copper miner Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS).

In fact, the team at Bell Potter believes investors could double their money with an investment in this ASX share.

By contrast, Rio Tinto shares are largely seen as fully valued following a strong run over the past 12 months.

What is the broker saying?

Bell Potter highlights that Aeris Resources released its third-quarter update and underperformed expectations with its production and costs. It said:

AIS released its March 2026 quarterly report. Tritton produced 5.3kt copper at All-InSustaining-Costs (AISC) of A$4.53/lb (BPe 6.3kt Cu at A$4.13/lb), Cracow produced 10.1koz gold at AISC of A$3,442/oz (BPe 11.2koz at A$3,490/oz. AIS reported this as copper equivalent (Cueq) of 10.4kt (vs quarterly guidance 10.0–12.2kt Cueq). This was below our forecasts, which had made allowance for a faster production ramp-up from the Murrawombie open-pit.

Mined grades were also lower than plan. Costs were higher on increased rail costs and waste stripping. Cracow tracked slightly below our production forecast due to lower grades. Cracow remains on track for the mid-range of production guidance, with higher costs. Diesel price impacts were minimal in the March quarter but are expected to have an impact in the June quarter.

However, the broker’s focus is less on the ASX copper stock’s performance in the third quarter and more on what is on the horizon. It explains:

While production was below our forecasts, this was a fair quarter with cash generation the highlight. AIS’ market capitalisation is now ~30% backed by cash. AIS is guiding the low end of production guidance to be met, implying a material lift in copper production at Tritton.

This aligns with our outlook for the first full quarter of production from Murrawombie, which should boost operating cash flow. Importantly, early works at Constellation are set to commence in the current quarter. Production start-up here by end CY26 will be a major positive catalyst for AIS’ copper production growth.

Should you invest?

According to the note, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and 90 cents price target on the ASX copper miner’s shares.

Based on its current share price of 38 cents, this implies potential upside of 135% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

AIS is a copper-dominant producer, with its near-term outlook highly leveraged to the copper price and increasing production at Tritton. Tritton is a strategic regional asset and potential corporate target, in our view. With upside to our Target Price supported by growing free cash flow and low valuation multiples it remains a key pick for CY26. Our Target Price of $0.90/sh is unchanged and we maintain our Buy recommendation.

The post Forget Rio Tinto shares and buy this ASX copper miner appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.