Coles vs Woolworths shares: Which supermarket giant has the strongest upside?

Australian supermarket rivals Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) have historically been neck and neck when it comes to grocery prices, revenue growth, and even share market performance. 

Here’s the latest out of the two retailers, and what to expect next.

What’s next for Woolworths shares?

At the time of writing, the shares are down 0.5% to $33.71 a piece. The latest drop means the shares have now tumbled nearly 12% since spiking to a multi-year high of $38.15 late last month.

For the year to date, Woolworths shares are still 15% higher, and they’re 4% higher than this time last year.

The supermarket giant’s shares crashed 10% in a day after it posted its third-quarter sales results last week. 

For the 13 weeks to the 5th of April, Woolworths reported total sales of $18.1 billion, up 4.5% from Q3 in FY25. Its Australian Food sales were up 5.9% year on year to $13.8 billion. 

The company said that underlying trading momentum remained solid, but management noted they have seen “some signs of increased customer caution”.

It looks like investors were spooked, and they quickly offloaded their stake in the supermarket giant.

Analysts are mostly neutral on the outlook for Woolworths shares too, implying that the stock isn’t expected to return to its multi-year high seen last month.

TradingView data shows that 12 out of 18 analysts have a hold rating on Woolworths shares, another five have a buy or strong buy rating, and one has a sell rating.

The average target price is $34.81, which implies a 3% upside at the time of writing.

What’s next for Coles shares?

Coles shares are also trading in the red, down 1.6% to $21.66 at the time of writing. The shares are still 1.5% higher for the year to date and 1% lower than 12 months ago.

The supermarket’s shares climbed 2% on Friday last week after the company’s third-quarter sales update, but have slumped by more than 5% since.

For the 12 weeks to 29 March 2026, Coles reported total group sales revenue of $10.7 billion, representing a 3.1% increase on the prior corresponding period.

The company’s key Supermarkets division delivered a standout performance, with sales revenue rising 4% to $9.8 billion. Comparable sales also climbed 3.6%.

One of the key positives from the update was that sales growth was volume-led, rather than being driven by inflation.

Coles advised that this represented above-market growth, highlighting the strength of its customer offer and continued execution.

Its early fourth-quarter results are so far broadly in line with the third quarter, but the retailer warned that it has seen higher supplier cost prices and higher operations costs, including fuel, freight, and packaging. Management said it is actively managing these and will mitigate impacts where possible.

It looks like investors were unsure what to make of the results, with the share price quickly climbing and then reversing.

Analysts are more bullish on the outlook for Coles shares from here, though. TradingView data shows that the majority (12 out of 18) hold a buy or strong buy rating.

The average $23.55 target price implies an 8% upside at the time of writing. Some expect the shares to jump another 17% to $25.50.

Which supermarket giant has the strongest upside?

According to the analyst data, Coles comes out on top.

Coles’ average upside potential share price is 8%, while Woolworths shares have an average upside of 3% over the next 12 months. Analysts are also more bullish on Coles shares, the majority rating the stock as a buy, versus a majority hold rating on Woolworths.

The post Coles vs Woolworths shares: Which supermarket giant has the strongest upside? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Woolworths Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.