Up 55% in a year, are BHP shares still a buy today?

Shares in BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are once again showing investors why the mining heavyweight remains one of the ASX’s most closely watched companies.

After a volatile start to the year, BHP shares have roared higher. The mining business is up 6% over the past five trading days, 28% year to date, and an impressive 55% over the past 12 months. To put it in perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has risen roughly 6% over the same period.

So, what keeps driving the BHP share price higher and is there more to come?

Multiple divisions firing strongly

One major reason for the rising BHP shares is diversification.

Despite ongoing swings in global commodity prices, BHP continues delivering strong operational performance across multiple divisions. Its Western Australian iron ore business recently achieved record production levels, while copper production remains robust and is expected to finish in the upper half of FY26 guidance.

That operational consistency matters. When several business segments are performing well simultaneously, it helps support earnings stability and stronger cash flow generation. BHP is no longer simply an iron ore miner with a collection of smaller assets attached.

Copper major growth driver

Copper is becoming an increasingly important part of the business.

In the first half of FY26, BHP reported that copper accounted for more than half of its underlying earnings for the first time ever. The company is also targeting copper production of between 1.9 million and 2 million tonnes this financial year.

That could prove important for long-term investors in BHP shares because copper demand is closely tied to global electrification trends.

Copper is essential for renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, power grids, data centres and digital infrastructure. As electricity demand rises and technology systems become more complex, many analysts expect copper demand to remain strong for decades.

BHP’s own forecasts point to global copper demand increasing from around 34 million tonnes annually today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050. The company also believes copper demand from data centres alone could rise six-fold to almost 3 million tonnes annually by 2050.

Strategic asset sales

Importantly, copper is not the only attraction of BHP shares. The company still generates enormous cash flow from iron ore while maintaining exposure to steelmaking coal and future potash production.

That diversification helps support cash flow across commodity cycles and gives management flexibility to continue investing in growth projects.

BHP’s balance sheet strength is another key advantage. The miner has improved its financial position through strategic asset sales and portfolio reshaping, allowing it to maintain significant financial flexibility while continuing to reward shareholders through dividends.

This is not a speculative mining company relying on one commodity boom. BHP remains a global resources powerhouse with operational scale, diversified earnings streams and multiple long-term growth opportunities.

What next for BHP shares?

Still, analyst sentiment remains mixed following the strong rally.

According to TradingView data, 14 of 21 analysts currently rate BHP shares as a hold. Five analysts have buy or strong buy recommendations, while two suggest selling.

The average 12-month price target sits at $54.30, which is roughly 7% below the current BHP share price of $58.33.

The most bullish analyst forecasts imply around 18% upside ahead, while the most bearish suggest the stock could fall another 33%.

For investors, BHP’s growing copper exposure may ultimately become the biggest factor shaping the miner’s long-term future.

The post Up 55% in a year, are BHP shares still a buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.