Buy, hold, sell: GrainCorp, Treasury Wine, and Xero shares

There are a lot of ASX 200 shares to choose from on the local market.

To narrow things down, let’s see if Morgans rates these shares as buys, holds, or sells this week.

Here’s what the broker is saying about them:

Graincorp Ltd (ASX: GNC)

This grain exporter’s half-year results disappointed due to a weak performance from the Nutrition & Energy business.

And with concerns over its outlook, Morgans has downgraded GrainCorp’s shares to a hold rating with a $5.62 price target. It explains:

GNC’s 1H26 result was weak but broadly in line with consensus at the NPAT level. Business unit performance was stronger for Agribusiness but materially weaker for Nutrition & Energy given a one-off derivate [sic] timing issue. GNC reported a significantly larger than expected cash outflow and its core cash position was also lower than expected. The era of special dividends now appears to be over. GNC reiterated its FY26 earnings guidance.

The outlook for the FY27 winter crop is one of caution given grain grower’s cost pressures and the BOM’s dry outlook. We have downgraded our forecasts for a much smaller crop. GNC’s strategic assets are worth materially more than its current share price. However, given earnings look set to decline again in FY27, the stock is lacking share price catalysts, and we move to a HOLD recommendation.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

This wine giant’s shares could be undervalued according to Morgans.

In response to significant share price weakness and an improving outlook, the broker has upgraded Treasury Wine shares to a buy rating. It commented:

We see TWE’s Investor Day on 4 June as a key share price catalyst. At this event, the company intends to share its detailed plans and targets for its portfolio and operating model to support a future state TWE. TWE’s recent trading update was positive with strong depletion growth, highlighting the strength of its brands. It also has the support of its banks with new debt commitments secured.

2H26 EBITS is on track to be higher than the 1H26. Following material share price weakness, given its low trading multiples and our belief that new management can deliver more acceptable returns overtime, we upgrade to a BUY recommendation.

Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO)

Finally, Morgans was impressed with Xero’s FY 2026 results and its outlook for FY 2027.

It notes that the company’s earnings momentum continues to improve relative to consensus expectations.

As a result, it has retained its buy rating on Xero shares with an $111.00 price target. It said:

XRO reported a better-than-expected FY26 result and FY27 outlook. Earnings momentum continues to improve relative to consensus expectations. Management were confident enough to announce a buy-back and hint at potential capital management in FY28. However, investors didn’t take comfort with commentary around AI disruption risk versus reward.

Management has a plan to maximise the opportunity set (TAM) ahead of a path to AI monetisation. It’s early days in AI and the path to AI driven value creation will become clearer, over time. We retain our BUY recommendation and $111 Target Price.

The post Buy, hold, sell: GrainCorp, Treasury Wine, and Xero shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Treasury Wine Estates and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates and Xero. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates and Xero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.