Where to from here for CSL shares according to Macquarie

It’s sobering to think that a year ago CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares were changing hands for $235 and were on an upwards trajectory.

The stock chart since August last year highlights the story of a series of downgrades and earnings disappointments, culminating in this week’s downgrade which pushed the shares past the psychologically important $100 barrier.

The question now is, will the stock recover any time soon, or is there more pain to come?

The analyst team at Macquarie has run the ruler over the company’s latest announcementys and come up with an answer, which we’ll get to shortly.

Plenty of bad news

Firstly, let’s have a look at the bad news CSL dumped on its shareholders this week.

Flagged as a 90 day review from the interim Chief Executive Officer Gordon Naylor, CSL announced that its FY26 revenue was now expected to come in at about US$15.2 billion, lower than the US$15.6 billion posted last year.

Profit is also expected to fall from US$3.3 billion to US$3.1 billion.

The company is also expecting to make write-downs worth about US$5 billion across FY26 and FY27 in addition to write-downs already announced at the half year results.

On the upside, the company’s Behring division expects to grow revenue in the second half, “supported by underlying demand, ongoing commercial execution and benefits from operational and transformation initiatives”.

Mr Naylor said the company has turnaround plans in place, they just haven’t borne fruit as yet.

As he said:

Our growth initiatives are working, but the financial benefits will take longer than previously anticipated to materialise. As a result, we have now revised down our 2026 financial year guidance. CSL’s culture and people continue to be first class, the industry is stable and growing and the company has evident strengths in plasma collections and influenza vaccines. I am confident that the company can be returned to profitable growth and my work is to position the business and the next CEO for success.

The company’s global search for a permanent Chief Executive is ongoing.

Analysts unimpressed

Macquarie’s research note on CSL, issued this week, was titled “A bloody mess”.

The analyst team went on to say:

We have applied a 20% discount to our target price to reflect earnings uncertainty. This incorporates risks around the scale/duration of immunoglobulin inventory issues, greater volume decline in the China albumin market, and ongoing management uncertainty. We would expect to partially or fully unwind this discount as these risks diminish, either through improved operational delivery or as further analysis provides us with a higher level of comfort that these risks have subsided.

Macquarie has a price target of $111 on CSL shares.

CSL is valued at $46.58 billion.

The post Where to from here for CSL shares according to Macquarie appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 5 ASX shares downgraded by brokers this week
• Why CBA, Paladin Energy and CSL shares crashed  9% to 17% this week
• CSL shares vs CBA shares: Which is the better buy?
• Why CSL shares could be one of the best buys on the ASX right now
• Is the worst over for CSL shares after this week’s sell-off?

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.