BHP shares hit a record high this week. Is the rally about to crack?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have finally taken a breather after a huge run.

At the time of writing, the BHP share price is down 2.15% to $61.45.

That follows Wednesday’s all-time high of $65.04, which capped off a solid rally for Australia’s largest mining company.

Even after today’s fall, BHP shares are still up 35% in 2026 and around 62% over the past year.

So, after such a strong run, investors have a fair question to ask.

Is there still room for BHP shares to move higher, or has the easy money already been made?

Profit takers move in after record high

Today’s fall looks like a mix of profit-taking and caution around commodity prices.

BHP had been running hard into record territory, so some selling was always possible once the stock hit a new high.

Iron ore is also back in focus. It remains a major driver of BHP’s earnings and cash flow, despite the company’s growing focus on copper.

The iron ore price has softened recently, falling to around US$101.96 a tonne.

It is still higher than a year ago, but the recent pullback has been less supportive for the big miners.

There are also fresh concerns around supply, with investors watching rising exports from Guinea’s giant Simandou iron ore project.

BHP’s copper push remains a key focus

The bull case for BHP is not only about iron ore.

Copper has become a much bigger part of BHP’s outlook.

BHP has been increasing its exposure to copper, which is tied to electricity networks, data centres, renewable energy, industrial growth, and electric vehicles.

The company lifted its FY26 copper production guidance earlier this year to between 1.9 million tonnes and 2 million tonnes.

BHP later said strong performance at Escondida and Antamina supported production in the upper half of that guidance range.

Copper now has a larger role in BHP’s earnings mix, particularly when iron ore prices are moving around.

BHP has also said copper demand could rise from around 34 million tonnes a year today to more than 50 million tonnes by 2050.

At the same time, bringing new copper supply to market is difficult, expensive, and painfully slow.

BHP is no longer cheap

The harder question for investors now is BHP’s current valuation.

The company has a market capitalisation of about $312 billion.

It also trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 21.8, with a dividend yield of roughly 3.2%.

Those numbers still leave room for the stock to rise.

But after a 62% gain over the past year, investors are paying a much higher price than they were a year ago.

Germany’s DZ Bank recently upgraded BHP to a hold rating and placed a $65 price target on the stock.

The target is only slightly above today’s share price.

It suggests DZ Bank still likes the business, but sees less room for the share price to run.

The post BHP shares hit a record high this week. Is the rally about to crack? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.