Oil prices are back making headlines after climbing strongly overnight.
At the latest check, crude oil was up 5.2% to US$92.80 a barrel, while brent crude was up 4.4% to US$95.50 a barrel.
The move has been driven by rising tensions between the United States and Iran, with attention again turning to the Strait of Hormuz.
According to The Australian, energy researcher Rystad has warned that a resumption “in earnest” of US-Iran hostilities could lift oil prices towards US$150 a barrel.
While that’s not where oil sits today, it does give investors a clear number to watch if the situation deteriorates further.
Why traders are watching Iran
Oil moved higher after reports that the US targeted Iranian air defence and radar infrastructure following an Apache helicopter incident near the Strait of Hormuz.
Oilprice.com said officials and analysts described the operation as a limited warning, rather than the start of a wider war.
The Australian also reported that US President Donald Trump has warned Iran it will be hit “very hard”.
Rystad’s Jorge Leon said it was still too early to say whether the current escalation marked a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but limited conflict.
Leon added that the probability of a near-term US-Iran peace deal had narrowed from Rystad’s previous estimate of around 40% a few weeks ago.
The Strait of Hormuz is the key risk
Trading Economics reported that fears of disruption through the waterway have added to concerns about global supply.
It noted that a near-total closure of the strait could still affect oil flows, even though some crude is still moving through the Persian Gulf.
There are still some limits on how far prices have moved.
The Australian reported that record Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have helped lift US exports, while China has reduced crude imports.
It also said around 5 million barrels per day of crude is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz through Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port.
At the same time, US crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, marking the seventh straight weekly decline.
What happens now?
The oil price is now being driven less by normal supply and demand and more by what’s happening in the Middle East.
If hostilities resume, Rystad’s warning shows why the market is taking a closer look.
Even though US$150 oil isn’t where prices are today, the fact that it’s being discussed at all tells us how quickly the risk has changed.
The post Could oil really hit US$150 a barrel? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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