Time to cash out? Why this expert is bearish on Goodman and BHP shares

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $60.20. In morning trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $59.86 apiece, down 0.6%.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) shares are under pressure as well. Shares in the integrated property group are down 0.8% at the time of writing, trading for $31.45 each.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time, with global stock markets broadly in retreat following renewed military strikes in the Middle East.

Taking a step back, BHP shares have delivered some outsized gains in 2026, while the ASX 200 has shed 1.4%.

Shares in the ASX 200 mining stock have leapt 30.8% year to date. And that’s not including the fully-franked $1.04 per share dividend the miner paid to eligible stockholders on 26 March.

Goodman shares have lagged far behind BHP’s this year, but with the Goodman share price up 2% in 2026, the property giant has materially outperformed the benchmark index. Goodman also paid out a 15 cents per share unfranked dividend on 25 February.

But casting his gaze ahead, Alto Capital’s Tony Locantro believes investors would do well to take profits on both ASX 200 stocks (courtesy of The Bull).

Here’s why.

Time to take profits on BHP shares?

“BHP is Australia’s largest diversified mining company, with significant exposure to iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal,” Locantro said.

And he noted the Aussie mining giant has been ramping up its earnings, driven in part by surging global copper prices and BHP’s increasing exposure to the red metal.

According to Locantro:

The company delivered a strong first half result in fiscal year 2026, reporting underlying EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] of US$15.5 billion, up 25% on the prior corresponding period. A major milestone was copper contributing 51% of group EBITDA for the first time.

While the long-term outlook for copper remains attractive, investor enthusiasm surrounding electrification and AI-related demand has contributed to a strong share price performance.

Explaining his sell recommendation on BHP shares, Locantro said, “In our view, the strong operational result, elevated expectations and risk-reward balance support taking some profits.”

Should I sell Goodman shares?

Alongside his sell recommendation on BHP shares, Locantro also issued a sell recommendation on Goodman shares.

“Goodman Group is a global industrial property and data centre developer with significant exposure to logistics infrastructure and the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) theme,” he said.

Commenting on Goodman’s H1 FY 2026 results, Locantro noted:

Results highlighted an operating profit of $1.203 billion in the first half of 2026, with data centres representing about 73% of the company’s development pipeline. Total work in progress is expected to reach about $18 billion by June 30, 2026.

However, based on current valuations, Locantro believes investors would do well to take some profits off the table.

He concluded:

While the long-term outlook for digital infrastructure remains highly attractive, investor enthusiasm surrounding AI and data centres has driven a substantial re-rating in the share price. With significant growth expectations already reflected in the valuation, future returns may become increasingly dependent on flawless execution of large-scale projects.

Given the strong share price performance and elevated market expectations, the risk-reward balance supports taking profits at current levels, in our view.

The post Time to cash out? Why this expert is bearish on Goodman and BHP shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.