The bull and bear case for CSL shares

One of the most recognisable ASX healthcare shares has been on a downward spiral over the last year. The once mighty CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have fallen 55% in the last 12 months at the time of writing.

Once trading for over $300 per share, they now sit at around $108, after dipping below $100 earlier this year. 

This has led to plenty of analysis and re-ratings from experts and brokers.

Investors who have been monitoring the situation will likely be wondering at what price CSL shares are simply too cheap to ignore. 

To help make that decision, let’s look at the bull and bear case for CSL shares. 

The bull case 

For those looking for the value proposition, CSL could stand as one of the most compelling long-term compounders on the ASX. 

The recent sell-off was influenced by three main headwinds: 

• A broad healthcare sell-off as investors rotated into resources during the Middle East conflict
• A series of earnings downgrades driven by slower-than-expected plasma collection recovery
• Leadership uncertainty after CEO Paul McKenzie’s departure. 

However the company remains built on a defensible moat that few biotech peers can match. 

The company’s plasma-derived therapies serve patient populations with chronic, lifelong needs, creating recurring revenue streams largely insulated from economic cycles. 

CSL’s vertically integrated plasma collection network represents a formidable barrier to entry, as scale and collection centre density take decades and billions of dollars to replicate meaningfully. 

With a structural undersupply of plasma globally, pricing power remains intact. 

For patient investors willing to look through near-term margin pressure from plasma collection cost normalisation, CSL offers a rare combination of defensive cash flows, reinvestment optionality, and genuine global pricing power in a sector where quality tends to be rewarded over time.

As my colleague Mark Verhoeven reported earlier this week, the value looks tempting. 

It now trades at just 12 times forecast FY2026 earnings, which could be the discount of the decade. 

The bear case 

On the flip side, this isn’t a guaranteed recovery story. 

The bear case for CSL centres on a business that, despite its quality reputation, faces a convergence of structural and cyclical pressures that the market may not yet have fully priced in. 

Plasma collection costs remain stubbornly elevated as the post-COVID normalisation has proven far slower and more expensive than management initially guided. 

This is squeezing margins in the core business. 

Additionally, China, once a reliable growth market for albumin, has turned into a headwind as domestic supply expands and pricing deteriorates. 

Finally, leadership instability adds another layer of risk as CEO transitions at complex, globally distributed businesses rarely go smoothly. 

It also comes at a challenging time, with guidance already cut. 

Essentially, there is still little room for disappointment in a market that seems to be filled with little investor patience. 

There’s plenty of reasons why investors may be searching for opportunities elsewhere.

Foolish takeaway 

CSL could present a serious value right now. 

However investors need to be aware that short term headwinds could persist, making this a true, long term prospect. 

In 10 years we might be looking back at the outrageous value investors were able to get in 2026, however it may take some patience to ever reap the rewards. 

The post The bull and bear case for CSL shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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• Investors are buying CSL shares again. Should you?

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.