WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have gone from one of the ASX’s most highly rated technology darlings to one of its most heavily sold-off growth stocks.
Over the past 12 months, WiseTech shares have fallen around 65%, wiping out years of investor optimism and re-rating the company from market favourite to deep-value turnaround candidate.
The question now is whether the market has punished the stock too severely.
From market darling to laggard
Not long ago, WiseTech was priced as one of the ASX’s premier technology companies.
Investors were willing to pay a significant premium for its global growth story, deeply embedded customer relationships, and exposure to the enormous logistics and freight forwarding industry.
At the centre of that story is CargoWise, the company’s flagship software platform.
CargoWise is essentially the operating system for global logistics companies. It helps freight forwarders, customs brokers, and supply chain operators manage shipments, documentation, compliance, and tracking in one integrated platform.
Once embedded, it becomes extremely difficult and costly for customers to replace. That sticky customer base and mission-critical functionality were key reasons WiseTech shares commanded such a high valuation in the past.
But that premium has now evaporated.
What went wrong?
A combination of concerns has driven the sharp sell-off of WiseTech shares.
Investors have reassessed WiseTech’s valuation, questioned execution consistency, and become more cautious about leadership stability and governance.
At the same time, the rise of artificial intelligence has sparked debate about whether traditional enterprise software models face longer-term disruption risk.
When a high-growth stock loses investor confidence, the re-rating can be brutal. WiseTech is a clear example of that dynamic.
Is the sell-off over the top?
Despite the steep decline of WiseTech shares, the underlying business has not disappeared.
CargoWise remains deeply embedded across global logistics networks and continues to generate recurring revenue from a large and diversified customer base. As global trade grows more complex, demand for efficient supply chain software is unlikely to disappear.
In fact, WiseTech’s long-term opportunity remains tied to the ongoing digitisation of global logistics, a process still far from complete.
However, restoring investor confidence will take time. Investors will watch execution, leadership clarity, and sustained product innovation closely over the next several quarters.
What do analysts think?
Despite recent weakness, some brokers believe WiseTech shares have been oversold.
Bell Potter continues to rate the stock as a buy, although it has lowered its 12-month price target from $78.75 to $71.75. Based on the current share price of $36.88, this still implies potential upside of around 95%.
Macquarie is even more optimistic. The broker maintains an outperform rating and has set a $97.70 price target, suggesting potential upside of almost 165% over the next year.
Foolish takeaway
WiseTech seems to be caught between a damaged sentiment cycle and a still-strong underlying business model.
If execution stabilises and confidence returns, the scale of the sell-off could eventually look excessive. But for now, the market remains focused on proof rather than promises.
The post Is the only way up for WiseTech shares after a 65% fall? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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More reading
- How to know when a beaten-down ASX share is worth buying
- Why WiseTech shares could rise 95% to 165%
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- Do WiseTech Global shares have a moat?
- Down 65%+, why I’d buy and hold these ASX shares
Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.