Is this broker right about CSL shares?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares remain one of the most debated blue-chip stocks on the ASX.

The biotechnology giant is trading around $112.04, which is a long way below the levels investors were used to seeing in past years. That alone makes the stock interesting, but it does not make the investment case simple.

Ord Minnett has recently reviewed its CSL model and maintained a hold recommendation on the stock. The broker’s concern centres heavily on the Vifor nephrology business and the uncertainty around CSL’s earnings outlook as management works to reset the company.

So, is the broker right to stay cautious?

The cautious case

Ord Minnett’s concern is not hard to understand.

CSL is best known for its Behring plasma products business, but the group also includes Vifor and Seqirus. Vifor is exposed to nephrology therapies, while Seqirus operates in vaccines.

The broker believes Vifor’s challenges are being underestimated by the broader market. It has highlighted the loss of exclusivity rights for Injectefer, which is used to treat iron deficiency anaemia, as generic versions enter the US market. It also points to Velphoro, a therapy used by chronic kidney disease patients on dialysis, being removed from the US federal government’s transitional drug add-on payment adjustment program from January 2027.

Ord Minnett expects these issues to pressure pricing and has assumed a fall in Vifor revenue and profit of US$355 million in FY27.

That is not a minor concern.

The broker’s Vifor revenue and operating profit forecasts for FY27 sit below consensus estimates. It also expects Vifor operating profit across FY27 to FY29 to be more than 10% below market expectations.

That cautious view, combined with what it sees as a middling outlook for Seqirus, has led Ord Minnett to cut its CSL group earnings per share estimates for FY27 and FY28.

Why I see it differently

I understand the hold rating. CSL is dealing with genuine moving parts, and investors should not pretend the reset is already complete.

But I think the more interesting question is whether the current CSL share price is already giving patient investors a reasonable chance to be rewarded.

In my view, it is.

CSL is not just Vifor. The Behring division remains the core of the business, and Ord Minnett itself appears to see a modestly brighter outlook for this key plasma products operation.

That is important because plasma is the heart of CSL’s long-term investment case.

This is a global business with scale, specialist manufacturing capability, regulatory experience, collection infrastructure, and deep relationships across healthcare markets. Those strengths are difficult to recreate.

I also think the market’s view of CSL has changed dramatically. Investors are no longer treating it like a flawless compounder. Expectations are lower, the valuation has reset, and management has a clearer challenge: rebuild confidence through execution.

That does not need to happen quickly to make the stock attractive. It needs to happen steadily.

A patient buy

I would rate CSL shares as a buy for patient investors.

The word patient is important. Vifor’s challenges, Seqirus’ mixed outlook, margin pressure, and management’s broader reset all mean the recovery case may take time.

But I think the share price already reflects a lot of disappointment. CSL still has a globally important plasma business, exposure to healthcare demand, and the potential to improve earnings over time if management executes well.

Ord Minnett may be right to flag the risks in Vifor. I just think the hold rating is too cautious when looking at the broader business and the current valuation.

Foolish takeaway

CSL is no longer the easy blue-chip story it once seemed to be. Investors now have to weigh a high-quality global healthcare franchise against real earnings uncertainty and a business reset that still needs proof.

That tension is exactly why the opportunity exists.

I would not ignore Ord Minnett’s concerns. Vifor could remain a drag, and CSL has work to do. But for investors willing to look beyond the next couple of reporting periods, I think the balance of risk and reward now looks attractive.

CSL shares may require patience, but I think they are worth buying at current levels.

The post Is this broker right about CSL shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.