What on earth’s going on with Judo Capital shares?

It has been another painful day for shareholders of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares.

The ASX bank stock extended its heavy sell-off on Friday morning, falling another 2% to $0.90 after already shedding around 40% over recent trading sessions.

That leaves Judo Capital shares down roughly 49% in 2026 and 42% over the past 12 months. By comparison, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has gained approximately 2.2% over the same period.

So, what’s behind the dramatic collapse?

Investors didn’t like Judo’s latest update

The sell-off began after Judo released revised expectations for FY 2026 on Thursday that left investors questioning the bank’s near-term outlook.

While management still expects earnings to grow this financial year, it also revealed that bad debt costs are rising faster than previously anticipated.

The biggest concern was the bank’s updated cost of risk guidance. Judo now expects its FY 2026 cost of risk to come in between $116 million and $122 million, reflecting an increase in specific loan provisions.

Management of Judo Capital shares said the higher provisioning relates primarily to three individual customer exposures across different industries that have deteriorated following customer-specific developments.

Although the issues appear concentrated rather than widespread, investors rarely welcome surprises when it comes to credit quality.

The bank also expects loans that are either more than 90 days overdue or classified as impaired to rise to around 3% of gross loans and advances by 30 June. That’s another sign that some borrowers are finding conditions increasingly challenging.

There were a few positives

The update wasn’t entirely negative. Judo said its collective provision coverage should remain broadly unchanged from its third-quarter trading update, equating to 94 basis points of gross loans and advances.

Management also noted that current provisioning includes additional overlays designed to protect against ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty across vulnerable sectors.

In other words, Judo Capital believes it has built a reasonable buffer against further deterioration.

Profit growth is still expected, just not as much

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for investors in Judo Capital shares was a downgrade to earnings guidance. Judo now expects FY 2026 profit before tax of between $163 million and $169 million.

While that would still represent approximately 30% growth on FY 2025, it falls well short of the bank’s previous guidance of $180 million to $190 million.

Looking further ahead, management of the $2 billion ASX share expects FY 2027 profit before tax of between $210 million and $220 million, implying another year of roughly 30% earnings growth despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Chief Executive officer Chris Bayliss acknowledged the disappointment but maintained confidence in the business. He said the latest update was partly driven by the broader economic backdrop but stressed that Judo Capital remains profitable, well capitalised, and has a clear pathway to delivering a return on equity in the low-to-mid teens.

What’s next for Judo Capital shares?

For now, investors appear focused on rising credit losses rather than future profit growth.

The market has become far less forgiving of banks reporting deteriorating loan quality, particularly when expectations were already high.

That said, Judo’s long-term growth story hasn’t disappeared overnight. The lender continues to grow its business banking franchise, remains profitable, and is forecasting another two years of double-digit earnings growth.

The post What on earth’s going on with Judo Capital shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.