ASX shares vs. property in FY26: Which investment outperformed?

Between S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares vs. property, bricks and mortar delivered the superior returns in FY26.

ASX 200 shares rose 2.77% and delivered total returns, including dividends, of 7% in FY26.  

Meanwhile, the national median home value, which reflects all property types in a single data point, rose by 7.3%.

The total return, including rental income, was 11% over the 12 months, according to Cotality figures.

Let’s break down the numbers a bit more. 

Typical Australian houses now cost $1M!

The national median house price rose 7.8% to $1,025,085, and the median apartment price lifted 5.6% to $752,007 over FY26. 

Three interest rate rises in CY26 are having a significant impact on the property market. 

Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, said the June quarter marked “a significant shift in Australia’s housing dynamic”.  

Lawless commented:

Weaker conditions through the second quarter of the year are attributable to an array of downside factors.

Even before interest rates rose by seventy-five basis points, we were seeing affordability hurdles weighing on buyer demand.

Higher cost-of-living pressures, deeply pessimistic sentiment and a further dampening of demand via property taxation changes announced in the federal budget are all contributing to weaker housing conditions.

Typical landlords and first home buyers tend to operate in the same part of the market: at the lower end of the price spectrum.   

The expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Scheme in October has created more demand for lower-end properties. 

An expected decline in investor purchasing due to proposed changes to capital gains tax (CGT) may reduce competition for young first-home buyers.

The CGT changes may also weigh on sentiment so much that home values fall, further enhancing affordability for young buyers.

That’s the upside of the proposed CGT changes.

The downside is that an exodus of property investors would reduce the number of homes available to the 30% of Australians who rent, leading to higher rents.  

On top of that, current homeowners may have to cope with their cornerstone financial asset declining in value. 

How will CGT changes influence landlords? 

Australian residential real estate has a long and impressive multi-decade history of delivering exceptional capital gains.

Most landlords will tell you they are in it for the capital growth, not the rental yield.

Although rents have increased significantly since COVID, rental yields on property investments are notoriously low.

The national median gross rental yield is 3.7%, but that does not take into account all the holding costs of property.

Once landlords pay their loan repayments, strata fees, council rates, insurance, management expenses, and repairs, there’s usually a deficit, which is why they’re negatively geared.  

Negative gearing will be scrapped on established properties under the proposed CGT changes from 1 July 2027.

Investors will still be able to negatively gear new builds, but long-term data shows landlords strongly prefer established properties. 

So, it’s arguable as to whether investors will move to the new-home market en masse. 

Here’s what landlords are thinking about…

If the government intends to take more of a landlord’s capital gain, will long-standing landlords decide property is just too much trouble? 

Cotality analysts raised this in a recent article, commenting that investors “may now look to other (non-property) assets instead”. 

Could the CGT changes prompt landlords who have owned investment property for decades to take their discounted gains now? 

Their options for the sale proceeds are pretty attractive.

They could pop the money into a savings account yielding 5.5%. 

They could contribute the money to superannuation and pay just 15% tax on future earnings, 10% on future capital gains, and no tax after retirement. 

Perhaps they might invest in fully-franked ASX dividend shares.

Or they could buy the market’s most popular dividend-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF), Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY), with its 7.2% average three-year yield and 8.8% growth rate. 

Research by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) shows that Australian landlords are predominantly high-income earners in their late 40s or early 50s, paying off a modest home mortgage. 

At their stage of life, running a property investment, with all its maintenance costs and tenant hassles, may start to look unappealing under the CGT changes, especially if home values fall. 

Treasury modelling suggests home values will keep growing, but at a 2% slower rate than otherwise under the CGT changes. Time will tell if that proves accurate.  

Shares vs. property in FY26: Houses

Here is the capital growth rate for houses in each market, ranked from highest to lowest.

Property market	Capital growth FY26	Median price
Perth	23.6%	$1,093,431
Regional Western Australia	22.1%	$751,927
Darwin	19.3%	$766,350
Brisbane	16.8%	$1,225,350
Regional Tasmania	12.8%	$646,512
AdelaideÂ	11.5%	$1,008,736
Hobart	9.7%	$803,094
Regional QueenslandÂ	14.3%	$864,094
Regional South Australia	11.6%	$569,830
Regional NSW	8%	$873,519
National	7.6%	$674,481
Regional Victoria	7.1%	$674,481
Canberra	3.5%	$1,035,828
Regional Northern Territory	0.8%	$445,087
Sydney	(0.1%)	$1,556,258
Melbourne	(-1.2%)	$948,482

Source: Cotality

Shares vs. property in FY26: Apartments

Here is the capital growth rate for apartments (and other strata properties like townhouses), ranked from highest to lowest.

Property market	Capital growth FY26	Median price
Perth	26.3%	$773,605
Darwin	20.9%	$472,572
Regional Western Australia	20.3%	$442,572
Brisbane	20.3%	$885,132
Regional Tasmania	14.7%	$487,510
Regional Queensland	12.1%	$833,791
Adelaide	11.7%	$695,151
Regional South Australia	9.2%	$394,057
Hobart	7.5%	$587,749
Regional Victoria	6.5%	$461,683
Regional NSW	6.4%	$687,320
National	5.6%	$752,007
Canberra	0.7%	$597,430
Sydney	1.1%	$898,623
Melbourne	(-0.2%)	$637,170
Regional Northern Territory	N/A	N/A

Source: Cotality

5 best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26

The best-performing ASX 200 shares of FY26 outperformed real estate by a country mile.

Here is the capital growth rate of the five top ASX 200 shares of FY26.

ASX 200 shares	Capital growth FY26
4DMedical Ltd (ASX: 4DX)Â	1,786%
Minerals 260 Ltd (ASX: MI6)	508%
Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)Â	327%
PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS)Â	275%
Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (ASX: EOS)Â	261%

The post ASX shares vs. property in FY26: Which investment outperformed? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 6 ASX 200 large-cap shares that rose 60% to 275% in FY26
• The ASX 200 sector that outperformed the benchmark 7 to 1 in FY26. Can it keep delivering?
• Top ASX 200 share of each market sector in FY26
• Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today
• Up 275% in a year! Why this ASX defence stock refuses to cool down

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Electro Optic Systems. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.