Owning National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares could be a rewarding investment for the year ahead (and beyond).
Investors may normally expect a good dividend from ASX bank shares, but there’s more to the total shareholder return (TSR) than just dividends. Capital gains can be useful or even provide the majority of the return over a particular time period.
A year is a relatively short-term timeframe for investing, but that’s usually the time frame analysts consider when they give their expectations for the share price â it’s called a share price target.
Let’s look at the forecast for both the NAB share price and dividend.
Analyst projections for NAB shares
According to CMC Invest, there have been 10 ratings on the ASX bank share within the last 12 months. Of those, two were buys, four were holds, and four were sells.
Of those 10 analysts, the average price target is $36.90. At the time of writing, that implies a possible decline of around 7% over the next 12 months.
If someone had invested $10,000, the forecast decline could mean those NAB shares are only worth $9,300 in 12 months.
But don’t forget there’s also the forecast dividend. According to CommSec, the business could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.70 in FY26. While the dividend is projected to increase to $1.72 per share in FY27, I’ll be conservative and stick with the lower $1.70 dividend per share estimate.
At the time of writing, that projection translates into a forecast dividend yield of 4.3%. The TSR figure doesn’t usually include franking credits, so I won’t include it for my calculations.
The projected payout could translate into a cash payout of close to $430. That would take the overall $10,000 investment to approximately $9,700. In other words, investors could see a net loss of 3%, or approximately $300, over the next 12 months.
Is this a good time to invest in the ASX bank share?
This is seemingly not a good time to invest. Analysts are suggesting the NAB share price is overvalued, and investors may see negative returns if the bank’s valuation goes backwards.
Of course, a 12-month period isn’t the right time frame to judge a business. Over a longer time period, the NAB share price could rise, and the TSR could be much more positive, with dividend payments adding additional returns each financial year.
With all of the above in mind, I think there are better ASX share opportunities out there with a $10,000 investment.
The post By July 2027, NAB shares could turn $10,000 into⦠appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
Should you invest $1,000 in National Australia Bank right now?
Before you buy National Australia Bank shares, consider this:
Motley Fool investing expert Scott Phillips just revealed what he believes are the 5 best stocks for investors to buy right now… and National Australia Bank wasn’t one of them.
The online investing service he’s run for over a decade, Motley Fool Share Advisor, has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*
And right now, Scott thinks there are 5 stocks that may be better buys…
* Returns as of 16 June 2026
.custom-cta-button p {
margin-bottom: 0 !important;
}
More reading
- If I invest $10,000 in Westpac shares, how much passive income will I receive in 2027?
- How much do I need in my superannuation to earn an annual $60,000 passive income?
- 3 ASX dividend shares I’d buy for passive income right now
- What are experts tipping for the big four bank shares in the back half of 2026?
- ANZ, NAB, Westpac and CBA shares: Brokers rate 2 a sell, and 2 a hold
Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.