Ampol shares rallied 40% to hit fresh 2-year high. Buy, sell or hold?

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares have climbed around another 0.5% to a fresh two-year high of $38.08 in Tuesday trade.

At one point this morning, the petroleum company’s shares were trading as high as $38.33.

Today’s increase means the shares are now up 19% for the year to date, and have rallied 40% higher over the past 12 months.

What has pushed Ampol shares to a multi-year high?

Ampol’s shares have been driven higher by a combination of volatile global oil supply and company growth, including improved production and profit.

The company is Australia’s largest transport energy distributor and retailer, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country. 

Unsurprisingly, its shares have rocketed higher on the back of conflict in the Middle East and concerns about global oil supply.

Ampol shares have jumped 37% higher since the war between the US and Iran ramped up in late February.

The shares suffered a temporary lull towards the back end of June when it looked like the two nations had reached a peace deal. Even so, the ceasefire was unstable, and even though the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened, supply continued to be very constrained and unpredictable. 

But Ampol shares rocketed higher again this morning as the peace talks fell apart in early July and the region descended into war again.

According to Trading Economics, the price of WTI crude oil has also surged higher this month, and is trading over the US$83 per barrel mark at the time of writing. 

There is still some way to go before the price returns to the US$113 per barrel level seen in April, but it is still significantly higher than the US$60 per barrel levels seen earlier this year.

Prices for Brent oil, gasoline, heating oil, and Ethanol have also jumped higher over the past month.

It’s not only oil supply and prices supporting this year’s share price rise.

Ampol has also posted a few updates that have gathered investor attention. In June, Ampol received the green light, with conditions, from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator EG Australia. 

The company previously confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production in its Q1 FY26 trading update.

What are brokers tipping for Ampol shares next?

It looks like we could see some more upside for Ampol shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares. The $38.75 target price currently implies a potential 2% upside.

TradingView data shows something similar. Out of 10 analysts, eight have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. One more rates Ampol shares as a hold and one as a sell.

The average $38.29 target price implies a potential 1% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. Whereas, the maximum $46.50 target price implies the shares have the potential to surge another 23%.

The post Ampol shares rallied 40% to hit fresh 2-year high. Buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

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• ASX 200 energy shares rebound after US-Iran peace deal falls apart
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• Ampol launches new $400m subordinated notes facility

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.