Up 67%! Why the rebound in Treasury Wine shares may just be getting started

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are pushing higher today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) global wine company closed yesterday trading at $5.60. In morning trade on Thursday, shares are changing hands for $5.62 apiece, up 0.4%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.5% at this same time.

If you’ve been following along with the wine stock, you’ll know it’s been struggling for some time now, particularly with its United States markets.

That’s seen investors exiting the stock, leaving Treasury Wine shares down 29.5% over 12 months.

However, the last five months have seen a remarkable turnaround.

After plumbing a one-year closing low of $3.37 a share on 26 March, the ASX 200 stock has now surged 66.8% from those lows.

And according to Wealth Within senior analyst Filip Tortevski, the rally could have much further to run.

Can Treasury Wine shares reclaim the $10 mark?

Treasury Wine released its full-year FY 2026 results on 13 August.

While net sales revenue over the year increased by 12.8% to $2.6 billion, the company posted a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) loss of $1.08 billion, impacted by $1.31 billion in post-tax material items.

Despite the loss, Treasury Wine shares closed up 4.9% on the day.

Commenting on those results and share price moves, Tortevski said:

Treasury Wine Estates’ FY26 result … wasn’t pretty, but the market’s reaction tells us something far more interesting.

TWE initially sold off after reporting a $1.08 billion statutory loss, with earnings from its Americas business falling 61.4%, but buyers quickly stepped in, pushing the stock back into positive territory and, importantly, above where it was trading after Monday’s announcement of its major US reset.

On Monday, 10 August, Treasury Wine announced an additional $558.4 million post-tax non-cash write-down on its US assets, with the company undertaking a strategic review of its Americas business.

“America has been a problem for TWE for years, but management is finally making the tough calls, cutting excess capacity, reducing production and inventory and reassessing what the US business should look like,” Tortevski said.

He added:

For TWE, what’s even more interesting is that buyers didn’t just turn up [following the earnings announcement]. TWE’s share price has been steadily rising for around two months, well before these announcements landed. The market was already starting to price in something better, and [last week’s] reaction only adds to that.

So, does the rally in Treasury Wine shares have legs?

According to Tortevski, it appears so.

He noted:

There’s also plenty of room above. This was a $15-plus stock only a few years ago, so if management can finally get America under control while continuing to grow Penfolds in China, a move back towards $10 over the next few years isn’t out of the question.

$10 a share would represent a potential 80% upside from current levels.

“Sometimes the biggest opportunity isn’t finding the next growth story. It’s fixing the one the market has already given up on,” Tortevski concluded.

The post Up 67%! Why the rebound in Treasury Wine shares may just be getting started appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.