Are falling house prices hurting ASX retail shares?

Australia’s property market has spent years making homeowners feel wealthier. Now, that powerful tailwind may be starting to reverse.

National home values fell 0.7% in July, according to Cotality, marking the sharpest monthly decline since December 2022. Sydney and Melbourne led the falls, but the downturn also spread to Brisbane and Adelaide.

More importantly for retailers, values across the most expensive quarter of the housing market dropped 3.2% over the three months to July.

That could have consequences well beyond the property sector.

How the wealth effect works

The wealth effect describes the tendency for households to spend more when their assets rise in value.

Homeowners do not need to sell their property or withdraw equity to feel richer. A rising valuation can provide the psychological permission to upgrade the television, replace the lounge, renovate the kitchen, or book an overseas holiday.

Research from the Reserve Bank of Australia found a positive and persistent relationship between household wealth and consumption. The effect was strongest across motor vehicles, durable goods, and other discretionary purchases.

The RBA estimated that a permanent 1% increase in housing wealth lifted the long-term level of consumption by around 0.16%.

However, the relationship can work in reverse.

Falling property prices do not necessarily create an immediate financial problem for homeowners. But they can weaken confidence and encourage households to defer purchases that are not essential.

That puts furniture, electronics, appliances, and other big-ticket categories near the front line.

Two quality ASX retailers under pressure

That backdrop helps explain the recent weakness in two long-term retail winners.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) suffered its worst single-session decline on record earlier this month. The JB Hi-Fi share price crashed 12.3%, despite the company reporting record FY26 sales of over $11 billion and a 6% increase in statutory net profit to $489.9 million.

The concern was not the year just completed. It was the direction of current trading.

Comparable sales at JB Hi-Fi Australia declined 0.8% during the fourth quarter before falling another 1.4% in July. Comparable sales also declined at The Good Guys.

Management noted that customers were increasingly seeking value and concentrating their spending around major promotional events. That could place pressure on margins if deeper discounting is required to maintain sales volumes.

Furniture retailer Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) is exposed to a similar dynamic. The Nick Scali share price is down more than 35% over the past 12 months, at the time of writing.

Yet its FY26 results hardly resembled a business in distress. Group revenue increased 4.3% to $516.7 million, while net profit after tax rose 22% to $75.7 million on an underlying comparison.

The warning was again in the outlook. Written sales orders across Australia and New Zealand were flat during the first five weeks of FY27, following softer trading during the second half.

What should investors watch?

A weaker housing market does not automatically make JB Hi-Fi or Nick Scali poor businesses.

Both companies have strong brands, experienced management teams, healthy balance sheets, and long records of rewarding shareholders. Quality retailers can also use difficult conditions to win market share from weaker competitors.

Australia’s strong employment market and rising household incomes could provide another important cushion. The RBA has previously found that falling wealth is less damaging to consumption if jobs and income growth remain firm.

Still, investors may want to watch comparable sales, store traffic, inventory levels, gross margins, and the depth of promotional activity over the coming months.

The wealth effect helped support discretionary spending while Australian property prices climbed. If that effect is now reversing, retailers selling the purchases that households can postpone may feel the pressure first.

For long-term investors, the key question is whether recent share price declines reflect temporary weakness in the consumer cycle or something more permanent in the underlying businesses.

The post Are falling house prices hurting ASX retail shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

More reading

• 2 ASX 200 shares I’d buy and 2 I’d avoid amid a surging Aussie dollar
• Why Megaport, Lendlease and JB Hi-Fi shares all crashed 14% to 15% this week
• 16 ASX 200 shares with ex-dividend dates next week
• Have these ASX 200 shares now fallen too far to ignore the value?
• Buy, hold, sell: ANZ Bank, Iress, and JB Hi-Fi shares

Motley Fool contributor Leigh Gant has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Nick Scali. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.