BHP shares are falling – is it time to take profits?

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been among the best-performing blue-chip stocks in the last year. 

However, after hitting yearly highs last week, they have started to fall, leaving investors scratching their heads at what to do next. 

A stellar run

BHP shares have risen strongly over the past 12 months. 

Since September last year, BHP shares are up an impressive 50%. 

A major driver of BHP’s rise has been its re-rating around copper, which has become an increasingly important and profitable part of the business. 

Copper prices have surged, supported by constrained global supply and strong structural demand from electrification, power infrastructure and AI data centres. 

BHP has also delivered record iron-ore production, roughly 2 Mt of copper production and strong cost control, allowing higher commodity prices to flow through to earnings.

BHP shares also received a boost following its earnings results.

The company reported a record US$32.9 billion underlying EBITDA (up 27%) and US$8.7 billion in dividends for shareholders.

In short, the market is increasingly viewing BHP not simply as an iron-ore miner but as a high-quality, cash-generative copper growth story, which has driven both stronger earnings expectations and a higher valuation.

These tailwinds took BHP shares to a record high of over $68 per share in late August. 

However, its share price has fallen roughly 5% since then.

Shareholders might now be wondering whether it’s time to take profits or hold for the long term. 

Here is what experts are saying. 

Mixed outlook 

Looking across the investment landscape, it appears most experts see BHP shares as fully rated. 

Of 17 forecasts from experts via TradingView, the average one year price target sits at $60.80. 

This would suggest BHP shares could dip a further 6% from current levels. 

On the bullish side, the highest one year target sits at just over $67 per share, while the lowest target sits at $43. 

Recent targets from notable brokers include: 

• Morgan Stanley has a one year target of $67.50
• Morgans sits at $55.30
• Deutsche Bank at $51.

Long-term upside 

While there appears to be little upside in the mid-term, blue-chip stocks like BHP hold long term value.

The company continues to generate substantial cash flow from its diversified portfolio, while its growing exposure to copper provides a potential structural tailwind as demand rises from electrification, data centres and the energy transition. 

In FY2026, copper contributed more than half of BHP’s underlying EBITDA for the first time, highlighting the commodity’s growing importance to the business.

BHP is also investing heavily in future growth, with a pipeline of copper projects expected to lift production significantly through to 2035, alongside the Jansen potash project, which is scheduled to begin production in 2027. 

At the same time, the company continues to return significant amounts of cash to shareholders, with FY26 dividends reaching their highest level in 4 years. 

The post BHP shares are falling – is it time to take profits? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has positions in BHP Group. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.