Few ASX blue-chip stocks have delivered a more dramatic rollercoaster ride than WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares.
The logistics software company’s shares have traded as high as $135 and as low as $28.76 â an almost 80% peak-to-trough collapse.
At around $36.26, the stock remains near its lows after falling roughly 62% over the past year. Yet several brokers continue to see substantial upside.
So, what are they seeing that the market isn’t?
The rally that ran out of steam
For much of August, WiseTech shares looked ready for a comeback.
The stock jumped 25% during the first three weeks, reaching $45.47 on 25 August. Then the FY26 result arrived, and the recovery quickly lost momentum.
Since reporting, shares have fallen around 20%, taking them a long way from the $100-plus levels seen a year ago.
But the numbers themselves weren’t disastrous. WiseTech reported a 46% increase in EBITDA to US$558.4 million for FY26. That landed within management’s US$550 million to US$585 million guidance range, although it fell slightly below the US$569.5 million market forecast.
For FY27, management expects revenue to grow 6% to 10%, reaching US$1.48 billion to US$1.54 billion. Underlying EBITDA is forecast to increase 12% to 21%, with margins improving to 49% to 51%.
A global leader with a credibility problem
The price collapse of WiseTech shares isn’t simply a story about deteriorating demand.
WiseTech’s CargoWise platform remains a major logistics software system used by the world’s top 25 freight forwarders, including Toll and DHL.
That gives the company exposure to powerful long-term trends, including the digitalisation of global trade and increasing complexity across international supply chains.
The bigger challenges have been investor confidence, governance concerns and regulatory issues. That’s why FY27 execution matters so much.
What do brokers think?
Several brokers remain firmly bullish.
Morgans retained its buy rating with a $62.50 price target, while Morgan Stanley maintained its buy rating and $70 target. That represents potential upside of almost 93% from $36.26.
Bell Potter also retained its buy rating on WiseTech shares, despite cutting its target from $71.75 to $65.
In our view the issue with the result was the guidance and, in particular, the expected 45%/55% H1/H2 split in CargoWise revenue this year which implies mid single digit growth in H1 and strong double digit growth in H2. While we reflect this skew in our forecasts, we adjust for the risk in our valuation by reducing the multiples we apply in the PE ratio and EV/EBITDA and also increasing the WACC we apply in the DCF. The net result is a 9% decrease in our TP to $65.00 and we retain the BUY.
Citi lifted its target from $55.05 to $58.75, while UBS reduced its target from $65 to $56 but retained its buy recommendation. Macquarie has an outperform rating and $48.20 target.
But not everyone is convinced. Jefferies downgraded WiseTech to hold with a $45 target, while JPMorgan also has a hold rating and $40 target.
At $36.26, that enormous spread tells investors something important: the market remains deeply divided.
Foolish takeaway
The bull case rests on WiseTech converting its strong underlying position into faster growth and expanding margins. The bear case of WiseTech shares is that investor concerns and slower near-term growth deserve a much lower valuation.
For now, brokers appear more optimistic than the share price suggests. But WiseTech will need to deliver on its FY27 ambitions before the bulls can claim victory.
The post WiseTech shares are down 62%. Why are brokers still bullish? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.
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Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.