Are CSL shares still cheap after almost doubling since June?

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have been one of the more spectacular ASX recovery stories of the past few months.

After a difficult period for the healthcare giant, investors have returned quickly as confidence in its earnings outlook improved.

With the shares now trading around $173.18, I think the valuation deserves another look.

A very different price

Back in June, CSL shares could be bought for just $90.

At that level, I thought the stock looked dirt cheap for a global healthcare business with strong market positions across plasma therapies, vaccines, and specialist medicines.

The market clearly agreed eventually. At around $173.18 on Tuesday, CSL shares have almost doubled in roughly three months.

That is an extraordinary move for a company of this size, and it changes the valuation discussion quite considerably.

The easy answer is that CSL is no longer cheap in the way it was at $90.

But I do not think that automatically makes the shares expensive.

What does the valuation look like now?

According to consensus estimates, CSL is expected to generate earnings per share of $9.01 in FY27, rising to $9.51 in FY28 and $10.10 in FY29.

At the current share price, that puts CSL on a PE ratio of roughly 19 times forecast FY27 earnings.

While I would not call that cheap, I think it is still a reasonable price for a business with CSL’s global position and the prospect of returning to steady earnings growth.

The valuation also becomes a little more attractive if those earnings forecasts are delivered. Based on the FY29 estimate, the shares are trading at around 17 times earnings.

That gives investors some room for the earnings recovery to do more of the work from here.

Why I still see value

CSL still has several qualities I like as a long-term investment.

Its plasma collection network, scale in immunoglobulin therapies, and established global operations are difficult to replicate.

There is also potential for earnings to improve as the business works through the operational issues and restructuring that weighed on investor confidence previously.

I would not expect the next few years to be completely smooth.

CSL still needs to show that it can deliver the earnings recovery the market is now pricing in, and any disappointment could put pressure on the share price after such a strong rebound.

Even so, I think the current valuation leaves the stock in a reasonable position if earnings continue moving higher.

Foolish takeaway

CSL shares looked exceptionally cheap around $90 in June.

At $173.18, I do not think that description fits anymore.

The shares have almost doubled, and investors are now paying around 19 times forecast FY27 earnings.

For me, that moves CSL from dirt cheap to decent value.

I would still be comfortable buying at today’s price for the long term, but I think the opportunity now rests much more on future earnings growth than on an obviously depressed valuation.

The post Are CSL shares still cheap after almost doubling since June? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

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Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in CSL. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.